Trump Seeks To Jolt GOP

>> LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C., THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER." JOE: PRESIDENT TRUMP HIS MESSAGE ON THE ROAD AS THE JOB MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKNESS. WELCOME TO THE FRIDAY EDITION. I SOFTER THAN EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT REPORT LIGHTS UP WALL STREET TODAY BUT BRINGS WORRIES ABOUT WAGES. I'M JOE MATHIEU ALONGSIDE KAILEY LEINZ. HAPPY JOBS DAY. THE PRESIDENT TALKING AFFORDABILITY ON THE ROAD. HE IS GOING TO ALABAMA AS WE LEARN WAGES ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP WITH INFLATION. KAILEY: WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL MONTHS IN A ROW NOW OF WAGE NEEDS NOT KEEPING PACE WITH ELEVATED PRICES. THAT PERHAPS POINTS TO THE AFFORDABILITY CONCERNS THAT VOTERS CONSISTENTLY SAY ARE TOP OF MIND AS THEY GET READY TO GO TO THE POLLS IN JUST 4.5 WEEKS FROM NOW, MAYBE LESS. PRETTY STRIKING TO SEE THE HEADLINE FIGURES IN THE PAYROLLS PRINT. 29,000 IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER, PLUS DOWNWARD REVISIONS. UNEMPLOYMENT WENT HIGHER WHICH MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH MORE PEOPLE PARTICIPATING IN THE LABOR MARKET. JOE: WALL STREET CELEBRATING THIS BECAUSE IT MIGHT MEAN MAY BE A BREAK ON INTEREST RATE HIKES. I DON'T KNOW IF WE WILL PUT THAT TOGETHER WHEN WE TALK TO KATIE RICHARDS. WE SAW AN IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN TREASURY YIELDS WHAT THEY ARE BACK ON THE RISE TODAY SO IT SEEMS TO BE A TENTATIVE REACTION AT BEST. KAILEY: UP ANOTHER THREE BASIS POINTS ON THE 10 YEAR. 5.27%. USUALLY WE WOULD LEAVE THAT UP TO CHARLIE. I DON'T HAVE TO QUOTE THE MARKETS BECAUSE CHARLIE -- AMY MORRIS IN THIS CASE WILL DO IT FOR US. SHE IS HERE IN WASHINGTON. AMY: THANK YOU. YOU ARE RIGHT. THE SHARP SLOWDOWN IN U.S. JOBS MARKETS DRIVING STOCKS HIGHER. BOND YIELDS DID FALL. THEY ARE HIGHER NOW BECAUSE THERE WAS SPECULATION THE FED WOULD NOT BE FORCED TO RAISE INTEREST RATES ANYTIME SOON. WE CHECK MARKETS FOR YOU ALL DAY LONG. THE S&P 500 UP .75%. RUSSELL 2000 INDEX UP AROUND 1%. THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS HIGHER, NOW AT 5.27%. TWO YEAR YIELD AT 4.8%. THE 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELDS MOVING HIGHER AT 5.62%. WE HAVE BEEN TELLING YOU THAT G7 NATIONS ARE SET TO RELEASE AS MUCH AS 100 MILLION BARRELS OF EMERGENCY OIL TO HELP TRIGGER A DROP IN FUEL PRICES. IT SEEMS TO HAVE AN EFFECT FOR A MINUTE. THAT IS OVER NOW. BRENT CRUDE IS ABOUT .1% HIGHER, TOPIPING $102 A BARREL. WTI CRUDE IS STILL A LITTLE LOWER, RIGHT AT $91 A BARREL. DIESEL AVERAGING $6.37. BROADCOM STARTING TO GATHER SOME $60 BILLION OF FRESH AI CHIP FINANCING TO BENEFIT ANTHROPIC AND OTHER COMPANIES. WALL STREET AND SILICON VALLEY ARE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY. THEY WANT SOME REASSURANCE THAT INVESTORS ARE STILL WILLING AND ABLE TO BACK AI'S BUILD OUT EVEN WITH A PUBLIC BACKLASH AGAINST DATA CENTER CONSTRUCTION. BROADCOM SHARES MORE THAN 3% HIGHER. IT IS WORTH NOTING THIS FINANCE WILL ADD TO THE HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DEBT ALREADY RAISED TO BUILD OUT AI INFRASTRUCTURE. NVIDIA SHARES HIT THEIR FIRST RECORD IN MORE THAN FOUR MONTHS. THAT RALLY RESULTS IN A MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF $5.7 TRILLION, CLOSE TO $6 TRILLION. THAT IS A LEVEL NO COMPANY HAS EVER SURPASSED. SHARES OF NVIDIA ABOUT 2% HIGHER. FOR ON-DEMAND NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY, SUBSCRIBE TO BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW OR EVER YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS. I'M AMY MORRIS. LET'S GET BACK TO BALANCE OF POWER WITH JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. KAILEY: AMY MORRIS WATCHING THE MARKETS FOR US. THANK YOU. THE MARKETS TAKING VERY LITTLE TIME TO REACT TO THE SOFTER THAN EXPECTED NONFARM PAYROLLS REPORT. SOMEONE WHO SEEMS TO BE TAKING SOME TIME TO DIGEST THE FIGURES IS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, WHO HAS YET TO POST ANYTHING ON TRUTH SOCIAL PERTAINING TO THE LATEST ECONOMIC FIGURES. INSTEAD, THEY PERTAIN MORE TO THINGS LIKE DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME AND SPECIFICALLY GETTING RID OF IT WHICH HE WOULD LIKE THE SENATE TO VOTE ON AT THEIR EARLIEST CONVENIENCE. MAYBE WE WILL HEAR FROM THE PRESIDENT ABOUT THIS JOBS REPORT OR THE OVERALL STATE OF THE ECONOMY WHEN HE TAKES THE STAGE IN MOBILE, ALABAMA. WE DID HAVE A CHANCE TO HEAR FROM THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL DIRECTOR KEVIN HASSETT WHO JOINED OUR COLLEAGUES EARLIER TODAY AND CHARACTERIZE THE FIGURES THIS WAY. >> THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF NEWS THIS WEEK THAT HAS BEEN VERY POSITIVE. THE LAST JOBS REPORT HAS BEEN THROUGH THE ROOF. IYOU HAVE SLIGHTLY SMALLER NUMBERS. THIS JOBS REPORT WAS ABOUT AS EXPECTED BECAUSE ONE THING THAT MAYBE FOLKS HAVE NOT BEEN FACTORING IN IS WE PRODUCE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYE MENT BY 300,000 WORKERS. THE THING YOU AND I HAVE TALKED ABOUT FOR YEARS IS THE CONSTRUCTION, FACTORY CONSTRUCTION WORKERS WAS ABOUT UP 12,000 WHICH MEANS IT IS UP 112,000 SINCE PRESIDENT TRUMP TOOK OFFICE. 112,000 PEOPLE -- THAT IS ABOUT THE MICHIGAN FOOTBALL STADIUM. THAT MANY PEOPLE ARE OUT THERE BUILDING FACTORIES TO CREATE FUTURE JOBS IN THE U.S. THAT IS ABOUT AS BULLISH OF A SIGN I HAVE SEEN FOR THE ECONOMY. JOE: KEEPING THAT STADIUM FULL OF JOBS IN MIND, WE GO TO THE NORTH LAWN OF THE WHITE HOUSE. STANDING IN THE SAME SPOT KEVIN HASSETT WAS THIS MORNING IS TYLER KENDALL. TYLER, THAT IS A REMARKABLE STATEMENT. THE MOST BULLISH I HAVE SEEN FOR THE ECONOMY SINCE I HAVE BEEN WATCHING IT? THAT IS THE BALANCE OF HIS CAREER. IS THAT THE STATEMENT FROM THE WHITE HOUSE TODAY? TYLER: AT THIS POINT, KEVIN HASSETT IS ONLY -- REALLY THE ONLY OFFICIAL WE'VE HEARD FROM. NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THIS IS A WHITE HOUSE THAT AT THE MOMENT IS TRYING TO CONVINCE THE AMERICAN PUBLIC TO FEEL GOOD ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND THEIR PROSPECTS GOING FORWARD AS WE GET CLOSER TO NOVEMBER AND THE COST OF LIVING REMAINS THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE FOR VOTERS. HE TOUTED CONSTRUCTION JOBS AS A WHOLE, POINTED TO OTHER POSITIVE DATA LIKE STRONG CONSUMER SPENDING WE GOT EARLIER THIS WEEK INSTEAD OF FOCUSING ON THE DOWNSIDE SURPRISE. OUR OWN ANALYST OF LUMBAR ECONOMICS TALK ABOUT HOW THERE ARE SWINGS BACK AND FORTH IN THE LABOR MARKET. THE THREE MONTH MOVING AVERAGE FOR PAYROLLS IS AT 50,000 WHICH REPRESENTS SOLID GROWTH BUT NOT HOT LIKE WE OFTEN HEAR FROM THE NEC DIRECTOR THERE. TO YOUR POINT AT THE TOP OF THE PROGRAM, THIS IS CAUSING TRADERS TO PAIR THEIR BETS. THAT THERE WILL BE A RATE HIKE AT THE NEXT FOMC MEETING. THAT WILL BE SOMETHING PRESIDENT TRUMP VERY LIKELY WILL WEIGH IN ON CONSIDERING YESTERDAY, HE SPENT A LARGE PART OF THE DAY TALKING ABOUT THE FED CHAIR KEVIN HASSETT. AT FIRST, SAYING HE DISAGREED WITH HIS UNANIMOUS DECISION OF THE FOMC TO HIKE RATES. THEN, TEMPERING THOSE COMMENTS AND SAYING HE WANTS KEVIN WARSH TO DO WHATEVER HE WANTS TO DO. KAILEY: KEVIN WARSH, KEVIN HASSETT, TO KEY INDIVIDUALS. WE DID HEAR FROM KEVIN HASSETT ON THE JOBS REPORT BUT NOT THE PRESIDENT. WHAT WE'VE HEARD FROM THE PRESIDENT ABOUT POSTING ON TRUTH SOCIAL IS EUROPE AGREEING TO RELEASE STOCKPILED DIESEL AND OIL, SOME OF THE 100 MILLION BARRELS FOR DOES THIS FEND OFF A DIESEL EXPORT BAN IN THE U.S. THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN TEASING? TYLER: IT APPEARS THIS IS PART OF THE PRESSURE CAMPAIGN FROM THIS WHITE HOUSE. WE FIRST REPORTED THIS WAS HAPPENING PRIVATELY BEHIND THE SCENES BUT THEN OFFICIALS WERE COMING OUT PUBLICLY SAYING THEY WANTED TO WORK WITH OUR EUROPEAN ALLIES TO GET MORE SUPPLY TO MARKET. THIS IS 100 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL AND DIESEL RESERVES, AMONG THE G7 COUNTRIES. WE SHOULD SAY BACK IN MARCH, THERE WAS A COORDINATED RELEASE AMONG THE 32 COUNTRIES THAT ARE PART OF THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY FOR 400 MILLION BARRELS. WE HEARD FROM THE IEA DIRECTOR THAT ONLY A THIRD OF THAT HAS ACTUALLY REACHED THE MARKET. PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER TELL US THAT THIS RELEASE OF 100 MILLION IS PART OF THOSE PLEDGED BARRELS BACK FROM MARK THAT HAVE NOT ACTUALLY GONE TO MARKET YET. AN INTERESTING PART OF THIS BECAUSE IT DOES APPEAR THIS MAY BE PART OF A PREVIOUS COMMITMENT THAT OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE NOT MADE GOOD ON. WE CANNOT SAY THAT U.S. THE FELT'S COMMITMENTS AS PART OF THAT COORDINATED RELEASE EARLIER THIS WEEK ACTUALLY. IT JUST HAPPENED. A FEW DIFFERENT THREATS TO PULL ON BUT IT IS CLEAR THE ADMINISTRATION DOES NEED MORE SUPPLY TO GET TO MARKET. WE CONTINUOUSLY HEAR THAT HIGHER DIESEL PRICES TODAY, $6.37 A G ALLON, THOSE HIT THE RED STATES AND THE RURAL STATES ARE GENERALLY HARD AS FARMERS ARE SOUNDING THE ALARM IN PLACES WHERE THERE IS REALLY TIGHT SENATE RACES LIKE NEBRASKA AND IOWA, WITH REPUBLICANS DEFENDING WHAT HAD BEEN RELIABLE RED SEATS. KAILEY: MAYBE ONE OF THE REASONS WHY PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL BE VISITING NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AFTER HE FINISHES UP IN ALABAMA TODAY AND OHIO TOMORROW. TYLER KENDALL AT THE WHITE HOUSE, THANK YOU. AS WE CONTINUE TO DIGEST THE JOBS FIGURES FROM THIS MORNING, WE TURN TO KATIE RICHARDS WHO JOINS US FROM THE GROUND WERE COLLABORATIVE. SHE'S A FORMER TREASURY DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL DURING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION. SHE IS HERE WITH US IN OUR WASHINGTON, D.C. STUDIO. WELCOME BACK. SO GOOD TO HAVE YOU ESPECIALLY ON A JOBS DAY. LET'S BEGIN WITH YOUR REACTION TO A SOFTER THAN EXPECTED 29,000 PRINT, WHAT DOES IT NEED? >> I THINK WE ARE SORT OF SEEING A VERY STABLE JOBLESS SITUATION. IN SOME WAYS, EXPECTATIONS WERE RAISED BY LAST MONTH'S PRINT WHICH CAME IN WELL ABOVE EXPECTATIONS BUT DOWNWARDLY REVISED. EVEN AT THE TIME, MANY ANALYSTS WERE SAYING THIS DOES NOT SEEM CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN OTHER MARKERS OF THE LABOR MARKET. WE SAW THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TICK UP EVER SO SLIGHTLY. WE ARE STILL TRUCKING ALONG. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION IS DOWN BELOW WHERE IT WAS 18 MONTHS AGO. THE THING THAT IS CAUSING THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR FAMILIES -- 4.2% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS PRETTY GOOD, BUT WE ARE SEEING REAL WAGES CONTINUE TO DECLINE. YEAR-OVER-YEAR, WE SAW WAGES GO UP BY 3% BUT THAT HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THE INFLATION PEOPLE ARE FACING AT THE PUMP AND AT THE GROCERY STORE. I THINK THAT IS REALLY SQUEEZING FAMILIES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS DOWN. NOW CONSUMER SPENDING HAS CONTINUED, THOUGH WE ARE SEEING RISING DEBT, RISING HOUSEHOLD DEBT, RISING DELINQUENCIES ON SOME OF THAT CONSUMER CREDIT. SO, FAMILIES ARE STILL BEING SQUEEZED. WORKERS PAYCHECKS ARE NOT KEEPING UP WITH INFLATION. IT IS A STORY WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR A WHILE NOW. JOE: WE HEARD FROM KEVIN HASSETT BEFORE YOU WALKED IN THE ROOM. IT WAS REMARKABLE TO HEAR HIM FRAME ALL OF THIS THIS MORNING ON BLOOMBERG. HE POINTED SPECIFICALLY TO CONSTRUCTION WORKERS, UP 12,000 THIS MONTH WHICH MEANS 112,000 SINCE THE PRESIDENT TOOK OFFICE. AS BULLISH A SIGN AS I HAVE SEEN FOR THE ECONOMY SINCE I HAVE BEEN WATCHING IT. IS THAT HOW YOU WOULD DESCRIBE THIS? KITTY: I AM SURPRISED TO HEAR MR. HASSETT -- JOE: IT HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR A FEW YEARS. KITTY: DIDN'T HE WRITE DOWN 36,000 IN THE EARLY OUGHTS? HE SAW SOME PRETTY BULLISH SIGNS FOR THE ECONOMY BACK THEN. OBVIOUSLY, THE WHITE HOUSE IS GOING TO SPIN THE JOBS NUMBERS AS THE GREATEST THING SINCE SLICED BREAD EVERY MONTH. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO DESERVE -- OBSERVE THE DEGREE TO WHICH MARKET REACTIONS AND EVEN THE WAY WE TALK ABOUT THE JOBS NUMBERS HAVE REALLY SHIFTED TO THIS WORLD OF PRIMARILY THINKING ABOUT JOBS BEING A LITTLE SOFT BUT NOT TOO SOFT IS GREAT BECAUSE IT MEANS THAT THE FED WON'T KEEP HIKING RATES. SO, I THINK WE SAW THAT REACTION THROUGHOUT THE MARKET THIS MORNING. BUT, I THINK IT ALSO POINTS TO THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE STOCK MARKET HAS BECOME A LITTLE DECOUPLED FROM CONSUMER EXPENDITURES, FROM THE REAL ECONOMY AND WORKERS. THE CONSTRUCTION WORKER PIECE IS PART OF THAT. GDP HAS BEEN REALLY DRIVEN RECENTLY BY THE AI BUILDOUT. THAT HAS DELIVERED SOME JOBS. IT HAS -- IT IS NOT DELIVERING HOUSING AND OTHER THINGS THAT CONSTRUCTION WORKERS COULD BE BUILDING. IT IS ALSO DRIVING INTEREST RATES HIGHER BECAUSE THERE'S A TON OF DEMAND. JOE: THEY ARE TEMPORARY JOBS. ONCE THE DATA CENTER IS BUILT, TAKES LIKE 50 PEOPLE TO RUN THIS MASSIVE PLANT. KITTY: THAT'S RIGHT. THERE'S ALSO A LOT OF UPWARD PRESSURE ON DEBT FINANCE FROM THAT. AND THERE'S A LOT OF CONCERN ABOUT THE KIND OF NESTING GAME THAT WE SAW IN THE HOUSING MARKET BEFORE THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF DIFFERENT COMPANIES LOANING EACH OTHER MONEY, BANKS LOANING EACH OTHER MONEY BASED ON THIS AI BUILDOUT THAT RIGHT NOW FEELS LIKE A BOON TO GDP AT LEAST. WHETHER THAT IS ACTUALLY HELPING WORKERS WERE NOT IS TO BE SEEN. -- OR NOT IS TO BE SEEN THAT ALSO, THE DEBT RELIES ON THESE ASTRONOMICAL REVENUE PROJECTIONS INTO THE FUTURE. IF THOSE DON'T COME TRUE, WE MIGHT HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL PROBLEMS. KAILEY: LET'S TALK MORE ABOUT THE FED WHICH YOU RAISED TO THE MARKET INTERPRETING A SOFTER PRINT AS EVIDENCE THAT THE FED'S MAY BE LESS LIKELY TO TIGHTEN POLICY NEXT MONTH. IF I AM THE FED LOOKING AT NOT THE HEADLINE PAYROLLS FIGURE BUT AT THE WAGE FIGURE YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT, WHERE THERE CLEARLY IS NOT UPWARD PRESSURE IN WAGES TO THE SAME EXTENT THERE IS IN OVERALL INFLATION, IS THAT NOT A SIGN THAT MAYBE YOU DON'T NEED TO TIGHTEN POLICY RIGHT NOW BECAUSE THERE IS NO WAGE PRICE SPIRAL IN THE WORKS NOW? KITTY: IT IS INTERESTING. WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT INFLATION FOR YEARS NOW. THE QUESTION OF THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE WAGE PRICE SPIRAL WAS OPERATED AT ALL DURING THE PANDEMIC SUPPLY SHOCKS -- I THINK THERE ARE BIG QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW THE FED SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT MONETARY POLICY. THAT SAID, THEY ARE IN A TOUGH POSITION RIGHT NOW BECAUSE OF THE CHAOTIC TARIFFS AND THE WAR IN IRAN WHICH ARE DRIVING UP, AS WE HEARD, DIESEL PRICES WHICH FILTER THROUGH TO THE REST OF THE ECONOMY. AND WHEN YOU COUPLE THAT WITH SUPPLY SHOCKS DON'T JUST DRIVE UP PRICES, THEY ALSO CREATE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR PRICE GOUGING, FOR CORPORATIONS TO INCREASE THEIR PROFIT MARGIN BECAUSE IT CREATES A TINY LITTLE MONOPOLY FOR EVERYTHING WHERE THERE IS A SUPPLY DISRUPTION. SO, WE SAW THAT DURING THE PANDEMIC SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS. I THINK WE ARE GOING TO KEEP SEEING THIS INFLATION DRIVEN BY ALL OF THIS CHAOS. AND THAT IS A DIFFICULT THING FOR THE FED TO GRAPPLE WITH. JOE: JOE: THE ADMINISTRATION WOULD ARGUE YOU NEVER HIKE INTEREST RATES IN THE FACE OF AN ENERGY SHOCK. AS LONG AS WE HAVE $100 A BARREL OIL, 650 DIESEL AND SO ON, 450 AT THE GAS PUMP, NO ONE WILL GET RELIEF FROM THE ENERGY PRICES, AND NOW CONSUMERS ARE PAYING MORE WITH A HIGHER INTEREST RATE ON TOP. KITTY: I PROBABLY WOULD NOT EXPECT THE FED TO HIKE GIVEN THE JOBS NUMBERS AND INFLATION NUMBERS WE ARE SEEKING. -- ARE SEEING. THE FED HAS HAD TO STEP AWAY IN SOME WAYS FROM THE 2% TARGET. I KNOW THEY ARE NOT DOING THAT THROUGH FORWARD GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY IN THE ADMINISTRATION'S ATTACKS ON SAID INDEPENDENCE ALSO PUT THE FED IN AN UNCOMFORTABLE POSITION WHERE MARKETS ARE LOOKING FOR REASSURANCE THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE INFLATION SERIOUSLY AND NOT BE MOTIVATED BY POLITICS, BY THE UPCOMING ELECTION, ETC. THEY ARE HAVING TO SIGNAL THAT FIRMLY WHILE ALSO BE CAREFUL ABOUT THEIR DUAL MANDATE, AS YOU SAID DEBT IS SQUEEZING WORKERS AND FAMILIES. MORTGAGE RATES HITTING 7%. THAT IS REALLY TOUGH. IT IS ALSO CAUSING PROBLEMS IN THE HOUSING MARKET. KAILEY: SO MANY OF THESE THINGS ARE INTERCONNECTED. ON NOT HIKING INTO AN ENERGY SHOCK, IT COULD END UP NOT BEING ENERGY IN ISOLATION THAT IS THE SHOCK IF DIESEL PRICES REMAIN AT THESE ELEVATED LEVELS. THAT MEANS EVERYTHING THAT IS LOADED ONTO A TRUCK, THE COST OF THAT COULD GO UP. BY HOW MUCH? WHAT WOULD YOU EXPECT? KITTY: THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. IT IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF SOME OF THESE MEASURES THAT ARE BEING TAKEN. IT SEEMS AS IF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WAS ESSENTIALLY TRYING TO BULLY EUROPE INTO INCREASING THEIR DIESEL RELEASES THROUGH THE THREAT OF AN EXPORT BAN. ALL OF THESE THINGS HONESTLY CREATE MORE CHAOS AND UNCERTAINTY. IT'S POSSIBLE WE WILL SEE DIESEL PRICES MODERATE SOMEWHAT, BUT THOSE DIESEL PRICES FEED THROUGH THE REST OF THE ECONOMY. ANOTHER THING I AM CONCERNED ABOUT IS HEATING OIL PRICES. IN EUROPE, THEY WERE CONCERNED ABOUT THE EXPORT BAN BECAUSE THEY ARE ALREADY SUFFERING FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND THE DISRUPTION TO THOSE SUPPLIES OF NATURAL GAS, HEATING OIL, ETC. ADD IN WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THEIR OWN PEOPLE. BUT BEING BULLIED INTO RELEASING MORE DIESEL RIGHT NOW WHEN WINTER IS COMING IS A DIFFICULT POSITION TO BE IN. WE HAVE A LOT OF HOMES IN THE NORTHEAST THAT ARE STILL HEATED WITH HEAT AND OIL. THAT IS A BIG EXPENSE FOR THOSE FAMILIES. JOE: A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO ARE WATCHING IN NEW ENGLAND AND LISTENING ON 92.9 IN BOSTON ARE LOCKING IN PRICES NOW. THEY NEED TO FILL THE TANK NOW. HEATING OIL IS ESSENTIALLY DIESEL. THIS IS A FACTOR FOR A LOT OF OUR AUDIENCE. HAPPY JOBS DAY. KITTY RICHARDS AT THE GROUND WORK COLLABORATIVE WITH US LIVE ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. THANKS FOR COMING ALONG. WE WILL ASSEMBLE OUR POLITICAL PANEL NEXT AS WE CONSIDER THE POLITICS OF THE ECONOMY, THE PRESIDENT'S TRAVEL PLANS, AND NEWS ON SPENDING INTO THE MIDTERMS, NEXT ON BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> IT IS 1:21 ON WALL STREET. STOCKS AND BONDS ARE HIGHER AFTER A WEAK JOBS REPORT. THE U.S. ADDING FEWER JOBS THAN EXPECTED IN SEPTEMBER. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EDGED HIGHER. THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS SAYS NONFARM PAYROLLS INCREASED 29,000 LAST MONTH, A MISS IN ALL ESTIMATES. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ROSE TO 4.2%. THE INTEREST RATE PROBABILITY ON THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL NOW AT 21.6%. WE DO CHECK MARKETS FOR YOU ALL DAY LONG AT BLOOMBERG. THE S&P 500 IS UP .7%. NASDAQ UP 1.1%. THE DOW UP .4%. 10 YEAR TREASURY AT 5.27%. TO YEAR TREASURY YIELD AT 4.38%. 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELD 5.63%. G7 NATIONS ARE SET TO RELEASE AS MUCH AS 100 MILLION BARRELS OF EMERGENCY OIL AND DIESEL STOCKS TO TRY TO TRIGGER A DROP IN FUEL PRICES. PRICES ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN RED AND GREEN, FOR THE MOST PART TRENDING LOWER. WTI MORE THAN $91 A BARREL. BRENT CRUDE TOPPING $102 A BARREL. AMAZON COMMITTING TO SPEND MORE THAN $1 BILLION OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS ON INITIATIVES FOR THE COMMUNITIES NEAR ITS SERVER FARMS. AMAZON WEB SERVICES CEO ANNOUNCED THE COMMITMENT IN DEFENSE OF DATA CENTER CONSTRUCTION, SAYING IT NEEDS TO HELP THE U.S. KEEP PACE IN A GLOBAL AI RACE. THE BILLION DOLLAR COMMITMENT WILL GO TOWARD WORKFORCE TRAINING PROGRAMS, COMMUNITY ENERGY EFFICIENCY UPGRADES, AND NONPROFIT GRANTS. AMAZON SHARES ABOUT 1% HIGHER. FOR ON-DEMAND NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY, SUBSCRIBE TO BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS. THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. WE GO BACK TO "BALANCE OF POWER ." KAILEY: AMY NORIS FOLLOWING THE MONEY ON WALL STREET. ON "BALANCE OF POWER" WE ARE FOLLOWING THE MONEY IN POLITICS AS WELL. WE ARE IN A NEW QUARTER. HAPPY OCTOBER 2. WE ARE GETTING THIRD QUARTER FUNDRAISING FIGURES FROM A NUMBER OF GROUPS. WE TOLD YOU YESTERDAY THE HOUSE MAJORITY PAC, THE DEMOCRATIC MAINE PARTY ENGINE IN THE HOUSE, RAISED $230 MILLION LESS QUARTER. HOW IS $833 MILLION? THAT IS HOW MUCH ACT BLUE SAYS WAS RAISED FOR ITS PARTY'S CANDIDATES IN THE THIRD QUARTER. THIS SPANS THE WHOLE GAMUT. THIS IS FEDERAL AND LOCAL RACES AS WELL FROM PROGRESSIVES TO MODERATES. THE BULK OF THIS MONEY WAS FOR FEDERAL CANDIDATES, SOME $600 MILLION. ACT BLUE SAYS THIS IS A RECORD AMOUNT FOR THE MIDTERMS. $586 MILLION IN THE SECOND QUARTER. JOE: YOU CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS IN LATE SURGE. FEDERAL CANDIDATES RAISED OVER $600 MILLION SPECIFICALLY, A MORE THAN 100% INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS QUARTER. BIG HAULS IN CALIFORNIA AND TEXAS. THE BIG SENATE RACE BETWEEN JAMES TALARICO AND KEN PAXTON. RICK DAVIS AND JEANNE SHEEHAN ZAINO JOIN US. SHE IS OUR DEMOCRATIC ANALYST AND DEMOCRACY VISITING FELLOW. RICK A REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST AND PARTNER AT STONECOURT CAPITAL. JEANNE, $833 MILLION, BIG NEWS FOR DEMOCRATS. SOME WOULD SAY A DOLLAR SHORT AND A DAY LATE. REPUBLICANS HAVE CONSISTENTLY OUTRAISED DEMOCRATS IN THIS CYCLE. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS? JEANNE: THE ADVANTAGE ON THE MONEY HAS BEEN REPUBLICANS. THAT HAS BEEN MAY BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST BRIGHT SPOTS THEY HAVE HAD IN AN OTHERWISE PRETTY DIFFICULT CYCLE. BUT I THINK THESE NUMBERS SHOW THAT THERE IS INCREASING ENTHUSIASM AND ALSO AN INCREASING SENSE AMONGST DONORS BIG AND SMALL THAT DEMOCRATS CAN WIN THIS ELECTION, NOT JUST THE HOUSE, MAY BE THE SENATE, BUT ALSO STATE AND LOCAL RACES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WE ARE SEEING THAT ENTHUSIASM AT THE POLLS, AND THE OFF YEAR ELECTIONS, IN THE EARLY VOTING REQUESTS AND EARLY VOTING NUMBERS. AND NOW WE ARE FINALLY SEEING IT IN THE MONEY. IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. THEY WOULD HAVE WANTED TO HAVE THIS EARLIER, BUT I THINK THEY WILL TAKE IT AS A GOOD SIGN THAT THEY MAY BE CATCHING UP. KAILEY: IT IS NOT EARLIER, IT IS NOW. 32 DAYS OUT FROM AN ELECTION. WHAT DOES MONEY BUY YOU? RICK: IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE NOT ALL MONEY IS EQUAL. THIS MONEY GOES DIRECTLY INTO CAMPAIGNS. DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN OUT RAISING REPUBLICANS AT THE CAMPAIGN LEVEL. THEY HAVE BEEN GETTING SWAMPED BY MONEY AT THE NATIONAL PARTY LEVEL, WHERE YOU CAN WRITE BIG CHECKS. BUT IN THIS CASE, THIS IS TYPICAL FOR WHAT THIS ELECTION CYCLE INDICATED, WHICH IS THE GRASSROOTS DONORS INTO THE CAMPAIGN COMMITTEES HAVE A LOT MORE ENERGY ON THE PART OF THE DEMOCRATS THAN REPUBLICANS. THERE'S ANOTHER ASPECT TO THIS THAT MONEY IS NOT EQUAL. A PARTY COMMITTEE NOT GET THE DISCOUNTS ON THE ADVERTISING THAT A CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE DOES. IN SOME CASES IT COSTS FOUR TIMES MORE DOLLARS TO PLACE AN AD IF YOU ARE A PARTY COMMITTEE THAN IT DOES IF YOU ARE A CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE OR AN OUTSIDE GROUP. YOU THINK ABOUT THAT, $600 MILLION RAISED FOR FEDERAL CANDIDATES. THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO 2.5 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF TV ADVERTISING. IT IS NEVER TOO LATE TO GET MONEY IN A CAMPAIGN. I CAN TELL YOU THAT FOR SURE. [LAUGHTER] THE LAST THREE OR FOUR WEEKS OF THIS CAMPAIGN WILL BE VERY DECISIVE FOR DEMOCRATS AROUND THE COUNTRY. JOE: THE ACT BLUE CHIEF EXECUTIVE IS TALKING ABOUT SMALL DOLLAR DEMOCRACY AT SCALE. THE AVERAGE CONTRIBUTION, THEY PROCESSED 19 MILLION DONATIONS. THE AVERAGE AMOUNT WAS $44. CAMPAIGNS LOVE TALKING ABOUT THIS BECAUSE IT SOUNDS GRASSROOTS. HOW DO YOU INTERPRET IT? RICK: WE HAVE BEEN TALKING A LOT LATELY ABOUT THE ENERGY THE DEMOCRATS HAVE AROUND THEIR VOTE VERSUS THE REPUBLICANS. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT YOU HAVE A LOT OF GOOD ENERGY. IF YOU ARE WRITING CHECKS TO A CANDIDATE, YOU ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THEM THAN ANY OTHER TEST IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS. IF YOU ARE A GET OUT TO VOTE DEBATE, AND WE HEAR ABOUT HOW REPUBLICANS HAVE A BETTER OPERATION TO TURN OUT TO VOTE, BUT DEMOCRATS HAVE SOME LIFE AT THEIR BASE. THAT IS INDICATED BY THE AMOUNT OF MONEY IN SMALL DOLLAR DONATIONS THEY ARE GETTING. YOU NOW LOOK AT THAT AND SAY, WHAT WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE, A WELL OILED TURNOUT MACHINE THAT MAY NOT GET YOU OUT OF BED, OR A BUNCH OF MOTIVATED DONORS WHO WILL DO IT ON THEIR OWN? KAILEY: WHEN WE CONSIDER WHERE THESE DONORS ARE, WE'VE SEEN REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES HITTING AT DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES WHO HAVE PROVED TO BE POWERFUL FUNDRAISERS LIKE JON OSSOFF AND JAMES TALARICO, SAYING ARE THOSE DONORS IN THE STATES WHERE THEY NEED THE VOTES, OR IS THIS RICH PEOPLE POURING MONEY INTO RACES THEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE BLUE? HOW MUCH DOES THAT MATTER? JEANNE: IT DOES MATTER. IT IS A CAMPAIGN ARGUMENT WE HEAR OVER AND OVER AGAIN. THE CANDIDATES AND THE CAMPAIGNS WILL TAKE THE MONEY WHEREVER IT IS COMING FROM. THEY WOULD LOVE TO HAVE SMALL DONORS IN STATE FOR THE REASONS RICK JUST DESCRIBED. IT INDICATES THESE PEOPLE WILL GET OUT TO VOTE. BUT OF COURSE WHEN YOU ARE TALKING DEMOCRATS POTENTIALLY COMPETING IN A STATE LIKE TEXAS, AND BEING WITHIN A MARGIN OF ERROR WHICH NOW SEEMS TO BE A DEAD HEAT RACE DOWN THERE, THEY WILL NEED THE MONEY. THAT IS AN EXPENSIVE MEDIA MARKET DOWNIT IS A CAMPAIGN -- TALA-FREAK-O IS ON THE AIR TALKING FOR REQUEST AND I DON'T LIVE IN TEXAS -- TALARICO IS ON TV TALKING FOR REQUEST AND I DON'T LIVE IN TEXAS. JOE: HAKEEM JEFFRIES IS HEADING WEST THIS WEEKEND TO TAP THE ATM. A THREE DAY FUNDRAISING SWING. CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, THIS IS INTERESTING. EIGHT FUNDRAISING EVENTS WITH THREE FRONTLINE DEMOCRATS, IT DOES HAKEEM JEFFRIES HAVE THE FUNDRAISING POWERS TO MAKE THIS WORTH IT? JEANNE: IT IS WORTH IT. HE HAS LONG SORT OF LIVED IN THE SHADOW OF NANCY PELOSI. IT IS A LONG SHADOW. SHE WAS AN AMAZING LEADER OF THE PARTY AND A SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE. HE IS COMING INTO HIS OWN AND HE IS OUT THERE TO PROVE HIMSELF, TO PROVE THAT HE HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO HAVE DEMOCRATS WIN, THAT HE SHOULD BE ELECTED SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE. A BIG PART OF THAT IS GOING TO BE CAN HE FUND RAISE AND HELP WITH THESE PEOPLE WIN OR KEEP THEIR SEATS? THERE ARE A LOT OF DEMOCRATS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WHO ARE IN TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED RACES IN SOME CASES BECAUSE OF THE GERRYMANDERING AND OTHER ISSUES THAT HAVE OCCURRED. E'S OUT THERE AND WILL DO HIS BEST TO PROVE HE HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO WIN. TO BECOME SPEAKER AND THEN TO KEEP THEM THERE IN 2028. KAILEY: SPEAKING OF WHO HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO WIN, IT SEEMS LIKE THE SENATE LEADERSHIP IS DECIDING MICHAEL WHATLEY DOES NOT HAVE WHAT IT TAKES THIS CYCLE. THEY HAVE SPENT SOME $30 MILLION ON HIS RACE IN NORTH CAROLINA. NOW THEY ARE PULLING OUT AND INSTEAD SENDING MORE THAN $8 MILLION TO KANSAS. DOES THAT TELL YOU MORE ABOUT MICHAEL WHATLEY OR ROGER MARSHALL, RICK? RICK: ACTUALLY TELLS YOU A LOT ABOUT BOTH AND NONE OF IT IS GOOD. NOT GOING TO WASTE ANY MORE MONEY. I THINK I HAVE ALREADY SPENT CLOSE TO $10 MILLION ON WHATLEY AND THEY DID NOT GET THEIR MONEY'S WORTH. BUT THE FACT THAT I HAVE TO SPEND MONEY NOW IN KANSAS TO SAVE IN INCUMBENT OR CREATE A CHANCE TO IS REMARKABLE. I MEAN, KANSAS? THIS IS A STATE THAT WENT OVERWHELMINGLY FOR DONALD TRUMP IN 2024. NOW, WE ARE HAVING TO PUMP SCARCE MONEY INTO THE STATE. IT'S A FASCINATING RACE TO WATCH. THE DEMOCRAT HAMILTON WAS A REPUBLICAN IN APRIL AND TURNED AROUND AND BECAME A DEMOCRAT TO RUN AGAINST MARSHALL. I LOVE THIS RACE. THE FACT WE'VE GOT A COMPETITIVE KANSAS -- IT IS THE FIRST TIME IN LIKE 100 YEARS. KAILEY: 1932. JOE: UNBELIEVABLE. RICK, WHAT DO YOU DO IF YOU ARE MIKE YOU -- MICHAEL WHATLEY? THAT HAPPENS IN EVERY CYCLE WHERE THEY SAY WE ARE TURNING OF THE MONEY OFF AND EFFECTIVELY TURNING OUR BACK ON YOU. YOU JUST KEEP CAMPAIGNING? WE JUST GET UP AND WATCH THE SUNRISE AND HOPE FOR THE BEST? OR DOES IT CHANGE OPERATIONS INSIDE THE CAMPAIGN? RICK: NO, YOU GOT THROUGH IT. IT DEPENDS ON THE KIND OF CAMPAIGN HE IS RUNNING. IT IS ALL ABOUT THE PEOPLE AROUND HIM. I HAVE BEEN ON LOSING CAMPAIGNS WHERE YOU KNEW YOU WOULD LOSE AND YOU DID THE BEST YOU COULD. IN SOME CASES, IT HELPS THE DOWN TICKET. YOU'RE CAMPAIGNING, THOSE BEHIND YOU OR STATE SENATE RACES, MAYORS, SO YOU WANT TO DO WHATEVER YOU CAN FOR THE PARTY AT THAT LEVEL. YEAH, YOU ARE NOT GETTING A TEE TIME AT THE COUNTRY CLUB BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION DAY. KAILEY: IF THAT IS WHAT THE WHATLEY CAMPAIGN IS DOING, WHAT ABOUT IF YOU ARE ROY COOPER AND YOU SEE THE RESOURCES FLEEING FOR YOUR OPPONENT? DO YOU NEED TO KEEP SPENDING MONEY ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU ARE A FORMER GOVERNOR OF THE STATE WITH SUPERHIGH NAME RECOGNITION? JEANNE: TWO-TERM GOVERNOR. I THINKING KEEP DOING WHAT YOU'VE BEEN DOING. THE REPUBLICANS WENT INTO THIS RACE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT WHATLEY. HE HAS PROVEN NOT TO BE SUCH A GREAT CANDIDATE AND THIS FLEEING OF THE MONEY IS A SIGN OF THAT. AND THEN YOU GET TO MARSHALL. THE IDEA THAT THE INCUMBENT SENATOR OF ANY PARTY COULD LOSE POTENTIALLY SHOWS WHAT A GOOD CANDIDATE HAMILTON IS. AND HE'S, BY MY COUNT, THE THIRD PASTOR ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE. WE HAVE GEORGIA, TEXAS, HAMILTON. THEY ARE SHOWING DEMOCRATS IN THE MIDPORTION OF THIS COUNTRY AND THE SOUTH THAT IF THEY ARE MODERATE, THEY CAN BE COMPETITIVE IN THESE STATES. MARSHALL HAS HAD A HARD TIME SINCE HE HAS BEEN SUING HIS OWN CONSTITUENTS WHO WERE HIS FORMER PATIENTS. IT HAS BEEN AN UGLY TIME FOR HIM. KAILEY: JEANNE AND RICK, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR HELPING US WORK THROUGH THE POLITICS AROUND WHO VOTERS MIGHT BE VOTING FOR. WE WILL GET INTO HOW THEY VOTE AND LEGAL BARRIERS TO IT AS WE TURNED TO ELIZABETH FROST UP NEXT ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. AMY: IT IS 1:40 P.M. ON WALL STREET. A SLOW DOWN ON THE U.S. JOBS MARKET GROWTH STOCKS HIGHER ON SPECULATION THE FED WILL NOT BE FORCED TO LIFT RATES ANYTIME SOON. WE CHECKED MARKETS FOR YOU ALL DAY LONG AT BLOOMBERG. THE S&P 500 UP .6%. NASDAQ UP 1%. THE DOW UP .4%. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD AT 5.2 8%. THE TWO YEAR YIELD AT 4.28%. THE PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX, 2.25% HIGH ER, LED BY BROADCOM WHICH IS MORE THAN 2.5% HIGHER. G-7 NATIONS ARE TO RELEASE AS MUCH AS 100 MILLION BARRELS OF EMERGENCY OIL AND DIESEL STOCKS TO HELP TRIGGER A DROP IN FUEL PRICES. WTI, ABOUT 1.5% LOWER NOW. BRENT CRUDE IS NOW ABOUT .1% HIGHER, TOPPING $102 PER BARREL. DIESEL IS STILL AVERAGING $6.37 A GALLON. RIVIAN SHARES MORE THAN 4% LOWER AFTER THE FIRM ANNOUNCED THIRD QUARTER SALES NUMBERS AND REAFFIRMED ITS FULL-YEAR DELIVERY OUTLOOK. THE COMPANY ANNOUNCED IT IS RELEASING ITS THIRD QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS ON OCTOBER 29 AFTER THE MARKET CLOSED. TESLA REPORTED BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED SALES FOR THE THIRD QUARTER. THE AUTOMAKER DELIVERED MORE THAN 486,000 VEHICLES WORLDWIDE. ANALYSTS EXPECTED 463,000. TESLA SHARES MORE THAN 5% HIGHER. FORD SHARES HAVE TUMBLED IN THE THIRD QUARTER, DOWN MORE THAN 6%, WEIGHED DOWN BY AN 80% DROP IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES AFTER THE CANCELLATION OF A UX TAX CREDIT -- OF A U.S. TAX CREDIT. SHARES LESS THAN 2% LOWER FOR FORD. FOR NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY, SUBSCRIBE TO BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW. I'M AMY MORRIS. THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. BACK TO JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. JOE: AMY MORRIS WILL RETURN AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR WITH ANOTHER READ ON THE MARKETS AS WE KICK OFF BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY. CONTINUING ON THE FRIDAY EDITION OF BALANCE OF POWER. 32 DAYS LEFT BEFORE WE ALL VOTING AND YOU BETTER BELIEVE WE ARE PLANNING SPECIAL COVERAGE OF THE MIDTERMS FOR YOU. MUCH TO UNDERSTAND BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. MUCH OF IT COMING FROM FUNDRAISING. THERE'S A HUGE STORY ABOUT ELECTION SECURITY AND VOTER FRAUD. WE WILL TALK IN A MOMENT WITH ELIZABETH FROST ABOUT SOME OF THE LITIGATION THAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING AND WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THIS ELECTION CYCLE. IT IS A MATTER OF MESSAGING. THEY ARE PRETTY BIG QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MESSAGE OF AFFORDABILITY AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY CAN ACTUALLY MAKE THE ARGUMENT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL TO GET IN VOTERS MINDS WITH DIESEL AT RECORD HIGHS. IT IS NOT JUST ENERGY, OF COURSE. WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT DIESEL PRICES, THAT BRINGS US TO THE GROCERY STORE. KAILEY: AFFORDABILITY BECOMES FRONT AND CENTER WHICH IS WHY THERE WERE SOME REPUBLICAN SENATORS PUSHING FOR VOTES BEFORE THEY LEFT TOWN ON THINGS LIKE THE RATEPAYER PROTECTION CAP -- ACT. SUSAN COLLINS WANTED TO VOTE ON A BILL TO CAP INSULIN COSTS. THAT MAY WAIT AFTER THE ELECTION AND IN THE LONG-TERM, PROPONENTS OF IT COULD SAY COULD HELP BRING DOWN PRICES. THAT'S A LOT TO GIVE VOTERS IMMEDIATELY OR THAT WILL AFFECT THEM IN THE 32 DAYS NOW BETWEEN NOW AND THE POLLS. LET'S TURN TO MEGAN'S GOALIE WHO LEADS OUR CAPITAL INFLUENCE TEAM AT BLOOMBERG AND IS WITH US. WHEN WE CONSIDER WHAT THEY COULD NOT GET ACCOMPLISHED BEFORE LEAVING TOWN, THEY HAVE LEFT TOWN TO GO SELL WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GET ACCOMPLISHED. SO, WHAT IS THE PITCH? IS IT THE SAME ONE THE PRESIDENT IS DELIVERING AS HE MAKES THIS SWING LARGELY THROUGH RED STATES INCLUDING ALABAMA LATER TODAY? >> IS A PRETTY HARD SELL. THEIR BIGGEST ACHIEVEMENT WAS THE ONE, BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL THAT WAS ENACTED LAST JULY. SO, WE ARE TALKING MORE THAN A YEAR NOW. THAT DID NOT REALLY RESONATE WITH VOTERS TO THE EXTENT THEY WANTED IT TO. SURE, SOME PEOPLE, PARTICULAR THOSE WHO COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SALT DEDUCTION WERE VERY HAPPY WITH THEIR TAX RETURNS LAST YEAR. BUT MOST AMERICANS, WHILE THEIR TAX RETURNS WERE BIGGER, THEY WERE NOT AS AT THE SAME TIME THE INCREASE WAS PAID FOR AS YOU MENTIONED. HIGHER GASOLINE PRICES AND ELECTRIC BILLS. JOE: THE TALKING POINT IS THAT DEMOCRATS ARE CRAZY. THEY ARE CRAZY PEOPLE IS WHAT WE ARE HEARING WHICH IS A DIFFERENT ARGUMENT THEN VOTE FOR REPUBLICANS AGAIN BECAUSE WE WILL LOWER YOUR PRICES. MEGAN: WE HEARD IT AGAIN AND AGAIN LAST MONTH AT THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION. AND CERTAINLY THAT IS SOMETHING THAT CAN RESONATE WITH CERTAIN PARTS OF THE MAGA BASE BUT THE BIGGEST ISSUE OF THIS MIDTERM ELECTION, BEYOND THE SHADOW OF A DOUBT IS NOT SOCIALISM. IT IS AFFORDABILITY, WHAT PEOPLE ARE PAYING AT THE GROCERY STORE. KAILEY: PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS THE ISSUE SHOULD BE WHETHER OR NOT HE IS ON THE BALLOT. HE SAYS ROTORS SHOULD PRETEND THAT HE IS AND HE IS PUTTING HIMSELF FRONT AND CENTER AS HE MAKES TRIPS TO ALL OF THESE DIFFERENT STATES. WHO DOES HE HELP BY GOING TO ALABAMA TODAY OR OHIO TOMORROW OR DOES HE RISK HURTING PEOPLE IN OHIO LIKE JOHN HOUSTON AND SOME FORMER REPUBLICAN CONGRESS PEOPLE? MEGAN: IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS THERE EXACTLY. THE OHIO SENATE RACE IS A TOSSUP RATE -- RAISE AND IT IS BETWEEN JOHN HOUSTON RUNNING AGAINST A LONGTIME SENATOR, SHARAD BROWN. WHO HAS WIDESPREAD NAME RECOGNITION. DONALD TRUMP'S BIGGEST SELLING POINT GOING TO THAT STATE IS RALLYING THE MAGGOT BASE. BUT HE DOES SO AT THE RISK, POTENTIALLY OF ALIENATING THOSE MODERATES THAT HE SAYS HE WILL NEED TO WIN FOR NOVEMBER. JOE: THE RATEPAYERS PROTECTION ACT AND PERMITTING WERE A FORM -- I DON'T KNOW IF EITHER SEE THE LIGHT OF DAY IN THE LAME-DUCK SESSION BUT WE ARE TOLD THAT PERMITTING REFORM IS THE ONLY WAY TO GET TO THIS LONG-TERM ENERGY PRICE ISSUE AND COULD MEAN MORE PIPELINES OR REFINERIES. DOES DEMOCRATS -- DO DEMOCRATS WARM UP TO THAT OR MAKE IT THEIR OWN IN THE NEXT CONGRESS? MEGAN: SHOULD THEY WIN ONE OR BOTH CHAMBERS OF CONGRESS WHICH IS SEEMING MORE LIKELY BY DAY, I THINK YOU WILL SEE THEM MORE AGGRESSIVE AND DEMANDING MORE CONCESSIONS FROM REPUBLICANS ON EVERYTHING FROM PERMITTING AND THE DEBT CEILING. JOE: THE AGREEMENT COULD CONTINUE TO MORPH IN THE FUTURE. MEGAN SCULLY RUNS OUR CAPITAL INFLUENCE TEAM WAS SOME OF THE BEST COVERAGE ON CAPITOL HILL AND YOU CAN FIND MORE ON THE TERMINAL AND ONLINE. AND WITH REGARD TO MIDTERM ELECTIONS, WE'VE TALKED SO MUCH ABOUT THE LITIGATION AROUND US, THE CONCERNS THAT MANY PEOPLE HAVE OF VOTER -- VOTING IRREGULARITIES IN THE PRESIDENT'S CONCERNS ABOUT MAIL-IN BALLOTS. ELIZABETH FROST DOES THIS FOR A LIVING AND JOINS US NOW ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. 32 DAYS TO GO. WILL THIS BE THE MOST LITIGATED ELECTION EVER? ELIZABETH: RIGHT NOW THE 2020 ELECTION HOLDS THAT HONOR. AND, IT IS HARD TO SAY. I WILL SAY WE ARE BUSIER THAN WE HAVE BEEN IN AN ELECTION CYCLE AT THIS POINT IN THE CYCLE. WE HAVE NO LESS THAN SIX ORAL ARGUMENTS IN MY GROUP WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR OCTOBER AND WE ARE MODERATING AND READY TO GO IN EVERY DIRECTION YOU CAN POSSIBLY IMAGINE IN THE EVENT OF LITIGATION. KAILEY: WE WILL TALK ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE VOTES ARE TALLIED IN A MOMENT BUT LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW. CAN YOU SET THE BASELINE FOR US AS TO WHERE THE BROAD LEGAL PICTURE STANDS WITH REGARD TO PEOPLE'S ABILITY TO EITHER REGISTERED TO VOTE, BEING ABLE TO VOTE WITH THE MEANS THEY DECIDE TO VOTE BE IT A MAIL-IN BALLOT OR AT THE POLLS. WHETHER OR NOT THEY'RE GOING TO BE RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE FOR ANY OF THIS KNOWING THE PRESIDENT WANTED TO CHANGE THE WAY THE POSTAL SERVICE FOR EXAMPLE DISTRIBUTED MAIL-IN BALLOTS BUT THE SUPREME COURT STRUCK THAT DOWN. WHAT CHANGES ARE HOLDING? ELIZABETH: THE BIGGEST -- THE BIG ONE IS THE PRESIDENT'S ATTEMPT THROUGH EXECUTIVE ORDER TO COMMANDEER THE POSTAL SERVICE TO DECIDE WHO GETS TO VOTE AND WHO DOESN'T GET TO VOTE BY ABSENTEE BALLOT. THE LOWER COURT ENTERED THE INJUNCTION AND THE SUPREME COURT STAYED THAT. THAT IS DONE. THERE WILL BE VOTING BY MAIL IN THE ELECTION. THAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN. I THINK THE BIGGER QUESTION IS ARE WE GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD ATTEMPTS TO CHALLENGE ROTORS THE LEGIBILITY TO VOTE? THERE ARE A LOT OF INDICATORS THAT THIS IS WHAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION REALLY WANTS TO DO. AND IN FACT, THEY STARTED LAST SPRING BY DEMANDING THE UNREDACTED VOTER ROLLS OF EVERY STATE IN THE NATION WHICH HAS NEVER BEEN SOMETHING THEY HAVE DONE BEFORE. SOME NUMBER OF REPUBLICAN STATES COOPERATED TO SOME DEGREE. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH COOPERATED OR WHO THEY ARE BUT AT LEAST 30 STATES, REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRAT CONTROLLED, REFUSED TO TURN OVER PRIVATE VOTER INFORMATION. AND UNREDACTED VOTER ROLLS HAS A LOT OF INFORMATION ABOUT YOU INCLUDING YOUR FULL DATA BIRTH AND THE KINDS OF STUFF THAT STATES AND INDIVIDUAL VOTERS GUARD VERY CLOSELY AND WITH GOOD REASON. THEY SUED 31 STATES. ONE WAS SETTLED. THEY HAD BEEN EMAILING THE WRONG ADDRESS IN OKLAHOMA TO TRY TO GET A CONCESSION THEY ARE. ONCE THEY SUED, OKLAHOMA SETTLED. THE OTHER 30 WENT TO LOWER COURTS AND THEY HAVE LOST 26 SO FAR. THOSE LAWSUITS ARE PROBABLY DEAD IN THE WATER BUT WHAT IS TELLING IS THE LAWSUITS -- THE LAWSUIT STRATEGY DID NOT WORK. THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TRY TO GET THOSE THROUGH A VARIETY OF WAYS INCLUDING AN EXECUTIVE ORDER. PART OF THE INITIAL OF -- ATTEMPT OF USING THE POSTAL SERVICE WAS THEY WERE CONSIDERING ASKING STATES TO UPLOAD THEIR UNREDACTED VOTER FILES. WE HAVE SEEN THREATS FROM ELECTION OFFICIALS COME FROM THE ADMINISTRATION -- IF YOU LET SOMEONE VOTE THAT SHOULDN'T BE VOTING, WE WILL PROSECUTE YOU. THEY ARE TRYING TO GET THE DATA IN A MILLION DIFFERENT WAYS AND THE QUESTION IS, WHY? THE ASSISTANT ATTORNEY GENERAL OF THE CIVIL RIGHTS DIVISION HAS INDICATED THEY WOULD LIKE TO REMOVE ODORS FROM THE ROLLS. JOE: WE SHOULD NOTE THAT THE ALLIANCE LAW GROUP IS FOCUSED ON REPRESENTING THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, DEMOCRATIC CAMPAIGNS. ELIZABETH, WHAT DO YOU TELL PEOPLE -- AND YOU'VE HEARD THIS NARRATIVE BEFORE THE PRESIDENT IS PLANNING TO DECLARE A STATE OF EMERGENCY. WHAT WOULD THAT ALLOW HIM TO DO? ELIZABETH: HE HAS NO BASIS TO DECLARE A STATE OF EMERGENCY. WHETHER SHE WOULD ATTEMPT IT IS ANYONE'S GUESS. SO FAR SINGER MINES HAVE HELPED BUT IN THE CURRENT TIMELINE, THAT IS NOT A GIVEN. IT WOULD BE LITIGATED IN COURT AND I WOULD EXPECT HE WOULD LOSE. I ALSO WANT TO POINT OUT THAT WE REPRESENT DEMOCRATS BUT WE ALSO -- WE HAVE A LOT OF NONPARTISAN LITIGATION. THE MAJORITY INCLUDING THE INTERVENTIONS THAT WE HAVE FILED ON BEHALF OF VOTERS AND VOTER ORGANIZATIONS IN THESE ATTEMPTS TO ACQUIRE PRIVATE VOTER DATA. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS QUITE INTERESTING ABOUT THOSE CASES -- OBVIOUSLY DOJ DOESN'T INCLUDE ME IN THE STRATEGY DISCUSSIONS, BUT I SUSPECT THEY THOUGHT IT WAS DATA AND KIND OF BORING AND WOULD FLY UNDER THE RADAR BUT IT HAS BEEN THE OBVIOUS -- THE OPPOSITE. AMERICANS ARE IRATE ABOUT THE IDEA OF THEIR DATA BEING TAKEN IN THIS WAY. WE REPRESENT A WIDE VARIETY OF AMERICANS WHO HAVE FOUGHT BACK AGAINST THIS. KAILEY: AS YOU MENTION, THE DOJ AND HERMIE DILLON JOINED US ON THIS PROGRAM NOT LONG AGO AND TALK TO US ABOUT THE DOJ'S PLANS TO SEND OUT ELECTION MONITORS TO A NUMBER OF STATES ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE MIDTERMS. IF THEY ARE PRESENT AT THE POLLS, WHO ELSE OTHER THAN VOTERS AND ELECTORAL OFFICIALS, VOLUNTEERS TO SPEND THEIR TIME, WHO IS LEGALLY ALLOWED TO BE PRESENT -- TO THIS QUESTION AROUND THE STATE OF EMERGENCY? ON WHAT GROUNDS COULD WE SEE THE MILITARY OR ICE? ELIZABETH: THE ONLY WAY YOU COULD DEPLOY THE MILITARY WOULD BE TO RAPPEL AND MUSIC TRENDS -- AGAINST THE UNITED STATES. THIS IS WHY I THINK THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE FAR-FETCHED IDEAS WE'VE SEEN THIS ADMINISTRATION -- AND A LOT OF THE IDEAS THEY HAVE TRIED HAVE BEEN FAR-FETCHED. BUT THAT IS A NARROW LANE. IT IS JUST NOT FEASIBLE. THERE IS ACTUALLY VERY STRICT FEDERAL LAW THAT MAKES CLEAR THAT ARMED FEDERAL OFFICERS AND FEDERAL OFFICERS IN GENERAL ARE NOT ALLOWED TO BE PRESENT AT THE POLLS. THERE ARE SEVERAL LAWSUITS INCLUDING ONE THAT MY FIRM IS INVOLVED IN, THIS ONE ON BEHALF OF SEVERAL OF THE DEMOCRATIC LEADERS IN CONGRESS BECAUSE OF SOME OF THE CONCERNING THINGS THE ADMINISTRATION HAS SAID THAT INDICATE THAT CONTRARY TO THE LAW, THEY HAVE INTERNALLY ADOPTED A POLICY THAT THEY BELIEVE THEY COULD SEND FEDERAL OFFICERS TO THE POLLS. SO THOSE LAWSUITS ARE ALREADY PENDING. WE HAVE ALSO, OF COURSE, HEARD ASSISTANT ATTORNEY GENERAL DYLAN SAY SHE IS PLANNING ON SENDING OBSERVERS TO THE POLLS. THERE ARE VERY STRICT LIMITATIONS TO WHAT DOJ CAN DO THERE AND EFFECTIVELY THEY CANNOT INTERFERE. I'M SURE YOU SAW THE NEWS OUT OF WYOMING WHERE THERE WAS A TEST RUN RECENTLY. THE WYOMING GOVERNOR WAS QUITE UPSET BY SOME OF THE BEHAVIOR FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE EMPLOYEES. IT IS SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR AND SOMETHING OUR CLIENTS ARE PLANNING TO BE PREPARED FOR. KAILEY: WE HOPE TO STAY IN TOUCH WITH YOU AS THESE LEGAL FIGHTS LEADING UP TO AND AFTER THE VOTE PLAY OUT. ELIZABETH FROST IS THAT A CHAIR AT ALLIANCE LAW GROUP HERE WITH US ON "BALANCE OF POWER." 32 DAYS OUT. LEGAL FIGHTS PLAY NOW AND CAMPAIGNS ARE IN FULL SWING AND MONEY IS MOVING AROUND. WE WILL TALK ABOUT IT MORE IN THE LATER EDITION OF "BALANCE OF POWER." JOE: WE ARE TALKING ABOUT HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS. PLEASE JOIN US ON THIS JOBS DAY. BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY IS NEXT. ♪