Oil prices rose on Wednesday as investors weighed a sharp rebound in OPEC+ production against persistent threats to Middle Eastern shipping, leaving crude above the two-month lows reached a day earlier.
Brent futures climbed 1.7% to $93.08 a barrel at 13:06 GMT , after touching $89.15 on Tuesday. US West Texas Intermediate advanced 1.4% to $87.23.
The recovery came as OPEC kept its demand forecasts unchanged but reported that the producer alliance had increased output by more than 2 million barrels a day in October.
The contrasting developments highlight the market’s dilemma: additional crude is returning, but getting it safely to customers remains far from assured.
OPEC’s production surge complicates the oil price rebound
OPEC’s November market report showed that crude production across the group and its allies reached 41.23 million barrels a day in October, an increase of 2.04 million from September.
Saudi Arabia led the recovery, with Iraq also increasing output substantially as producers restored volumes disrupted by the conflict with Iran.
The group maintained its forecast for global demand growth of 200,000 barrels a day this year and around 2.6 million next year.
Its projected call on alliance crude remained at 42.1 million barrels a day in 2026 and 43.9 million in 2027.
The increase in production suggests that availability could improve further if export routes remain accessible.
Yet additional production does not automatically translate into more barrels reaching consumers.
Costly tanker insurance, disrupted logistics and security risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to complicate deliveries.
For traders, the distinction between production capacity and export availability has become increasingly important.
Brent and WTI crude oil futures chart | Source: Yahoo Finance (ICE, NYMEX), Invezz
Iran’s nuclear warning keeps shipping risks in focus
Wednesday’s rebound was already underway before OPEC published its report.
Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran would not allow enriched nuclear material to leave the country, raising doubts about prospects for a swift agreement with Washington.
Recent tanker attacks have compounded those concerns.
At least 37 vessels were attacked in October around the Strait of Hormuz, while another tanker strike was reported near Oman this week.
Giovanni Staunovo of UBS argued in a 9 November research note that recovering Middle Eastern shipments and hopes of de-escalation had reduced oil’s geopolitical premium, although freight and insurance costs remained elevated.
MUFG’s Edward Bell similarly warned in research published Tuesday that a lasting decline would require more than diplomatic assurances.
A credible agreement and confidence in safe passage would be necessary to support a sustained recovery in oil shipments.
What will decide Brent’s next move?
The American Petroleum Institute estimated that US crude inventories rose by roughly 9 million barrels in the week ended 6 November, according to preliminary industry figures.
Official government figures are due Thursday at noon Eastern Time, delayed by the Veterans Day holiday.
The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent spot prices to average around $100 during November and December, assuming regional supply constraints persist.
However, it forecasts prices falling towards $77 in the final quarter of 2027 as production recovers and inventories rebuild.
AI disclosure: AI tools assisted with research and drafting of this piece. An Invezz editor reviewed the facts, sources and wording before publication. Any opinions or analysis are Invezz’s, not those of an automated system.
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