Polymarket is one of the best-known platforms in the prediction market sector, predictive markets that allow you to trade contracts linked to the possible occurrence of future events. From politics to cryptocurrencies, from the economy to sports, users can buy YES or NO shares and earn a profit if their prediction turns out to be correct.
The operation is relatively simple: each share has a price between 0 and 1 dollar and, when the market is resolved, the winning one pays 1 dollar, while the losing one has no more value.
But how does Polymarket actually work? How do you sign up, how do you deposit funds and how do you buy your first contracts? And above all, in which countries can it be used?
Here is a complete guide to Polymarket, with practical instructions, trading examples, fees, risks and geographic restrictions updated to November 2026.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform that allows users to trade contracts whose value depends on the outcome of a future event.
Unlike social networks, where users can simply express an opinion, or surveys, which collect statements without necessarily implying a financial commitment, on Polymarket predictions are expressed through the purchase and sale of shares.
The platform uses a peer-to-peer trading system: users can buy and sell contracts with each other through an order book, without the trading mechanism having to function as a bet against a bookmaker.
The markets cover numerous topics:
Politics: elections, electoral results, appointments and government decisions.
Cryptocurrencies: prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other digital assets, ETF-related events and sector developments.
Economy and finance: interest rates, inflation, GDP and central bank decisions.
Sports: match results, tournaments and competitions.
Technology and artificial intelligence: product launches, new AI models and technological developments.
Geopolitics: conflicts, international agreements and diplomatic events.
Culture and entertainment: awards, music charts, cinema and show business.
The goal is to transform users’ expectations into market prices that can be interpreted as implied probabilities.
Polymarket is therefore used both by those who want to trade on future events and by analysts, journalists and market watchers who wish to monitor collective expectations.
How Polymarket works: YES, NO and probabilities
The functioning of Polymarket is mainly based on two possible outcomes: YES and NO.
Let’s imagine a market with this question:
Will Bitcoin surpass $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
The platform offers two contracts:
Contract
Price
Indicative implied probability
YES
$0.65
65%
NO
$0.35
35%
A user who believes that Bitcoin will exceed the threshold can buy YES at $0.65. Those who think it will not exceed can buy NO at $0.35.
Each winning contract is settled at 1 dollar.
Example: how much can you earn on Polymarket?
Let’s assume we buy 100 YES contracts at a price of $0.65 each.
The initial investment is:
100 × $0.65 = $65 .
If Bitcoin actually exceeds $120,000 according to the market’s specific rules, the 100 YES contracts are worth a total of $100.
The result is:
Item
Amount
Capital invested
$65
Final proceeds
$100
Gross profit
$35
Gross return
53.85%
If instead Bitcoin does not reach the expected threshold, the YES contracts become worthless and the user loses the $65 invested.
These amounts do not include any fees.
It is important to remember that the price does not represent a certain statistical probability. A $0.65 contract expresses a market assessment around 65%, but this can change at any time depending on supply and demand.
In addition, the price shown on the platform may represent the midpoint between the best bid and ask, or the last traded price when the spread is particularly wide. It does not necessarily coincide with the price at which a new order will actually be executed.
Where does Polymarket work? Available countries and restrictions
One of the most important aspects to check before registering concerns geographic availability.
Polymarket is not accessible for trading in all countries. Restrictions depend on the user’s physical location, local regulations and the platform’s compliance policies.
The official documentation distinguishes between fully blocked countries, regions subject to restrictions and close-only situations, in which it is allowed to close existing positions but not to open new ones.
Polymarket in Italy
Polymarket lists Italy among the countries where trading is blocked .
Users can view the markets and available data, but cannot open new positions through the international platform.
Consequently, having an account, holding USDC or owning a crypto wallet is not sufficient to be able to trade.
Polymarket in Italy
Italy is also subject to restrictions.
The Italian authority considers the offering a form of unauthorized gambling in the country.
Polymarket in the United States
The situation in the United States is different.
Polymarket.com, in its international version, is not accessible for trading to U.S. users.
In the United States there is a separate version, called Polymarket US, managed by QCX LLC, a company designated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market on July 9, 2025.
Polymarket US uses an application separate from the international one. Accounts on the two platforms are not linked.
The U.S. version provides specific access requirements and territorial eligibility. Availability may vary by State and applicable conditions; it is therefore necessary to check the official terms before registering.
List of countries subject to restrictions
According to the Geographic Restrictions page in the Polymarket help center, updated to November 2026, the list of fully blocked areas includes:
Geographic area
Geographic area
Argentina
Australia
Belgium
Belarus
Brazil
Burundi
Central African Republic
Congo (Kinshasa)
Cuba
Germany
Ethiopia
France
United Kingdom
Ireland
Iran
Iraq
Italy
Japan
North Korea
Lebanon
Libya
Myanmar
Malta
Nicaragua
Netherlands
New Zealand
Poland
Russia
Slovakia
Somalia
South Sudan
Sudan
Syria
Venezuela
Yemen
Zimbabwe
The official page also includes other territorial restrictions and mentions Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand in the section relating to close-only limitations. Since some entries appear in multiple sections of the documentation, it is important to check your specific case directly using the platform’s official information.
Restrictions are also indicated for the Canadian provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec and for Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine.
Geoblocking depends on physical location, not just residency. Polymarket expressly prohibits the use of VPNs, proxies or other tools to circumvent geographic restrictions.
How to sign up for Polymarket: step-by-step guide
For users located in a permitted territory, registering on Polymarket is relatively simple and can be completed through three methods: email, Google or crypto wallet.
The official site is polymarket.com .
1. Registration with email
This is one of the simplest ways to get started.
The steps are:
Open the official Polymarket website.
Click on Sign Up.
Enter your email address.
Request the verification code.
Enter the six-digit numeric code received by email.
Complete the registration procedure.
Once the process is complete, you will be able to log in using your email address and verification code.
It is important not to share the authentication code with anyone, not even with people claiming to be from the support service.
2. Registration with Google
Polymarket also allows you to register via a Google account.
The procedure involves:
Go to the registration page.
Select Continue with Google.
Choose your Google account.
Authorize access and complete registration.
This method avoids creating separate credentials.
3. Registration with crypto wallet
Those who already have a wallet can connect it directly to the platform.
Among the wallets listed in the official documentation are:
MetaMask.
Rabby.
Phantom.
The procedure requires connecting the wallet and signing two messages: the first authorizes the connection with Polymarket, while the second enables trading.
Signing an authentication message does not automatically amount to sending funds or making a purchase transaction.
The choice of wallet is particularly important for users who prefer to manage their own keys and blockchain operations.
How to deposit money on Polymarket
After creating an account, the next step is to deposit the funds needed to buy contracts.
The international trading system uses USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar.
USDC, issued by Circle, is designed to maintain a value close to 1 dollar and allows you to perform operations without being directly exposed to the price fluctuations typical of Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Which cryptocurrencies are needed?
The reference currency for transactions on the platform is USDC.
However, USDC must be distinguished from other stablecoins:
USDC: stablecoin pegged to the dollar and used in the Polymarket ecosystem.
USDC.e: bridged version of USDC used in some blockchain contexts.
USDT: stablecoin issued by Tether, not automatically interchangeable with USDC.
It is therefore not enough to transfer any cryptocurrency to a Polymarket address: you must follow the instructions relating to the token and network shown on the deposit screen.
How to make a deposit
The standard procedure is as follows:
Log in to your account.
Open the Deposit section.
Select the available deposit method, for example Transfer Crypto.
Choose the token to transfer.
Select the supported blockchain.
Copy the deposit address generated for your account.
Open the wallet or exchange from which you want to send the funds.
Enter the address and carefully check the selected network.
Confirm the transfer.
Wait for blockchain confirmation and check the balance.
Polymarket assigns deposit addresses associated with the profile and distinct by network. It is therefore essential to use the exact address shown on your screen.
The platform also indicates minimum deposit amounts that may vary depending on the network used. For example, the documentation reports indicative thresholds of 20 dollars for Ethereum and 3 dollars for Solana.
It is advisable to first make a small test transfer and check that the funds arrive correctly.
Where to buy USDC?
Users who do not yet own USDC can purchase the stablecoin through crypto exchanges that support its trading and transfer.
Among the well-known platforms are:
Coinbase .
Kraken.
Binance.
The availability of USDC and individual networks depends on the country, the account and the services offered by the exchange.
Before making a purchase, you must check that the transfer to Polymarket is supported and that the operation is allowed in your jurisdiction.
How to buy YES and NO on Polymarket
Once funds have been deposited, you can start exploring markets and buying contracts.
The interface features several categories and allows you to search for events through the search bar.
For example, a user interested in cryptocurrencies can search for markets relating to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana or other events in the sector.
Choosing the market
The first step is to identify the event you want to trade on.
Before buying a contract, you must carefully read:
The exact market question.
The expiration date.
The resolution conditions.
The source that will be used to determine the outcome.
Any time and geographic criteria.
This step is essential because a market title does not always describe all the conditions required for payment.
For example, a market asking whether Bitcoin will surpass $120,000 could specify a price source, a time interval and a particular observation condition.
Buying YES
If you believe the event will occur, you select YES.
Let’s assume the contract costs $0.40.
With an investment of 40 dollars you can buy 100 contracts, before fees.
If the event occurs, the contracts are worth 100 dollars.
The gross profit is therefore 60 dollars.
Buying NO
If instead you believe the event will not occur, you select NO.
The operation works the same way: you buy the contract at the indicated price and receive 1 dollar for each winning share at resolution.
Market orders and limit orders
Polymarket uses an order book, in which buy and sell offers are listed.
There are two important operating modes.
Market order: allows you to buy or sell at the best available price in the book. It is useful when you want to execute an order quickly, but the average price may differ from the one initially displayed, especially in illiquid markets.
Limit order: allows you to set the maximum price you are willing to pay to buy a contract, or the minimum price at which you are willing to sell it.
For example, if YES is trading around $0.42, but you want to buy it at $0.38, you can place a limit order at that price.
The order will remain pending and will only be executed when there is a counterparty willing to match it. It can also be partially filled.
For beginners, learning to use limit orders is useful to have more control over the entry price.
Can contracts be sold before expiration?
Yes. You are not required to wait for the event to be resolved.
One of the most interesting aspects of Polymarket is the ability to sell your shares before the market expires.
Imagine buying 100 YES contracts at $0.40, investing a total of 40 dollars.
After a few hours, a new piece of news changes market expectations and YES rises to $0.70.
The user can sell the contracts at that price:
Initial investment: 40 dollars.
Proceeds from sale: 70 dollars.
Gross profit: 30 dollars.
In this case there is no need to wait for the event to be resolved.
Naturally, the price could also fall. If YES drops from $0.40 to $0.20 and the user decides to sell, the proceeds will be 20 dollars, with a realized loss of 20 dollars.
The possibility of selling before expiration nevertheless depends on the presence of buyers and the market’s liquidity.
How are Polymarket markets resolved?
Resolution is the process that determines which market outcome is correct.
Polymarket uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle, a smart contract-based system that allows results to be proposed, verified and challenged.
The process provides that:
The event reaches the conditions required for resolution.
An answer is proposed for the market.
The proposal is submitted to the verification process.
Interested users can challenge a resolution they consider incorrect according to the established rules.
The result is finalized.
When the market is resolved, the winning shares receive 1 USDC each, while the losing ones become worthless.
The most important thing is that resolution depends on the specific rules published in the market description, not on a generic interpretation of the event.
Before buying, therefore, it is always advisable to read the section dedicated to resolution conditions.
What are Polymarket’s fees?
Polymarket does not apply a fixed fee to all operations.
Since July 2026 the platform has applied taker fees for certain market categories, while makers do not pay trading fees.
Fees also help fund liquidity incentive and rebate programs for certain categories of traders.
The formula published by Polymarket is:
Fee = C × feeRate × p × (1 − p)
Where:
C indicates the number of contracts traded.
feeRate is the coefficient provided for the category.
p is the contract price expressed in dollars.
The structure of taker coefficients published by the platform is:
Category
Taker coefficient
Crypto
7%
Sports
5%
Finance
4%
Politics
4%
Economy
5%
Culture
5%
Weather
5%
Technology
4%
Geopolitics
0%
These values are coefficients in the formula and not percentages to be applied directly to the entire capital invested.
For example, by purchasing 100 crypto contracts at $0.50, the theoretical taker fee according to the formula is:
100 × 0.07 × 0.50 × 0.50 = 1.75 USDC .
Market makers do not pay trading fees under the published structure.
Geopolitical and world event markets are listed as fee-exempt.
Polymarket does not charge its own fees on USDC deposits and withdrawals, but intermediaries used to purchase or transfer cryptocurrencies may charge additional costs.
The complete structure is available in the official documentation on fees .
How to withdraw funds from Polymarket
When you want to transfer your balance off the platform, you can use the Withdraw function.
The standard procedure is:
Go to the Portfolio section.
Select Withdraw.
Enter the recipient wallet address.
Choose the available token and network.
Enter the amount.
Confirm the withdrawal.
Once the transaction is processed, the funds are sent to the specified address.
It is important to always check that the recipient wallet supports the selected token and network.
Polymarket also offers a withdrawal allowlist function, which allows you to limit withdrawals to previously authorized addresses. For eligible accounts, this is an additional security measure against unauthorized transfers.
What strategies can be used on Polymarket?
Polymarket is not just a tool for buying a prediction and waiting for the result. It can also be used to trade on changes in probabilities.
Among the most common approaches are:
1. Searching for undervalued probabilities
A trader can compare the price of a contract with their own estimate of the event’s actual probability.
If they believe an event has a 60% probability, but the market prices it at $0.40, they may consider YES undervalued.
The trade only makes sense if the trader’s estimate is sufficiently well-founded and the price compensates for the risk taken.
2. Trading on news
A political, economic or technological news item can quickly change contract prices.
A trader can open a position before an event and close it afterwards, seeking to benefit from the change in expectations.
3. Analysis of related markets
Some markets are linked to each other.
For example, the probabilities that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000, $110,000 or $120,000 by the same deadline should be consistent.
Apparently anomalous differences can be a starting point for further analysis.
4. Liquidity analysis
Before placing an order it is important to check the volume, the bid-ask spread and the depth of the order book.
A market with high volume may offer greater execution opportunities, but volume does not guarantee that predictions are correct.
5. Comparison with external sources
Polymarket probabilities can be compared with macroeconomic data, on-chain information, official statistics and verified news.
This approach makes it possible to use prediction markets as an analysis and research tool, rather than simply following other users’ quotes.
What are the risks of using Polymarket?
Like any speculative market, Polymarket involves significant risks.
The first is the possibility of losing all the capital invested in a position. If you buy YES contracts and the event does not occur, the shares can become worthless.
A second risk is liquidity: it is not always possible to quickly sell a position at the desired price.
There are also:
Volatility risk: prices can change rapidly following news or events.
Resolution risk: a superficial reading of the rules can lead to misinterpreting a market’s outcome.
Technological risk: smart contracts, blockchains, wallets and infrastructure may have vulnerabilities or operational issues.
Regulatory risk: availability may change depending on the decisions of local authorities and platform policies.
Manipulation risk: illiquid markets can be more easily influenced by large orders.
Polymarket prohibits insider trading and market manipulation. The possibility of trading on real events does not authorize the improper use of confidential information or unlawful influence on the events underlying the contracts.
Is Polymarket anonymous?
Polymarket should not be considered a fully anonymous platform.
You can register via email or wallet, without the initial procedure necessarily coinciding with a traditional bank account opening process.
This, however, does not mean that transactions are invisible.
Blockchain transactions can be viewed publicly and linked to the addresses used. In addition, the platform may apply verification procedures and checks based on regulatory requirements and its own terms of service.
It is therefore important to protect your credentials, not share access codes and not use the service with the aim of hiding transactions or identities.
How are profits on Polymarket taxed?
The tax treatment of profits obtained on Polymarket depends on the country of tax residence and the legal classification of the transactions.
You should not assume that all profits are automatically treated as cryptocurrency capital gains.
The nature of the contracts, trading methods and local rules can lead to different tax classifications.
It is advisable to keep a record of purchases, sales, resolutions, deposits and withdrawals and consult a professional experienced in crypto taxation and financial instruments.
Polymarket: frequently asked questions (FAQ)
What is Polymarket in simple terms?
Polymarket is a prediction market platform that allows you to buy and sell contracts linked to the outcome of future events. Users can choose YES or NO and receive 1 dollar for each winning contract at resolution.
Is Polymarket free?
Registration does not involve a sign-up fee. However, some trading operations incur taker fees. There may also be costs charged by exchanges, wallets or intermediaries for cryptocurrency transfers.
How much does a contract cost on Polymarket?
The price of a contract varies depending on expectations and market supply and demand. Shares have a value between 0 and 1 dollar. A YES contract quoted at $0.60 costs approximately 60 cents.
What is the minimum capital to get started?
There is no single minimum capital valid for all markets and all deposit methods. You must consider minimum transfer thresholds, contract prices and the amounts required for each operation.
Can I lose all the money invested?
Yes. If the contract you bought loses at resolution, it may become completely worthless. It is possible to lose the entire amount invested in the position.
Can I sell before the event occurs?
Yes. You can sell shares before expiry through the order book, using a market order or a limit order. Execution depends on the presence of buyers and available liquidity.
Does Polymarket work in Italy?
No, according to the official list of geographic restrictions, trading on Polymarket is blocked in Italy. You can view data, but not open new positions on the international platform.
Does Polymarket work in France?
No. France is among the blocked countries. In addition, on July 16, 2026, the ANJ ordered the blocking of access to the site.
Does Polymarket work in the United States?
U.S. users cannot use Polymarket.com to deposit and trade. They can instead use Polymarket US, a separate product operating through QCX LLC, a Designated Contract Market regulated by the CFTC, subject to eligibility requirements and applicable territorial restrictions.
Which cryptocurrencies are needed to use Polymarket?
The reference currency for international trading is USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the dollar. Deposits must be made using the tokens and networks supported on your account’s deposit screen.
Is Polymarket a bookmaker?
Polymarket is a prediction market based on trading contracts between participants. It does not necessarily function like a traditional bookmaker that sets odds and takes bets against its customers. Its legal classification, however, varies from country to country.
Conclusions: why is Polymarket important for the crypto world and for information?
Polymarket represents one of the most interesting developments in the evolution of prediction markets and the interaction between blockchain, information and finance.
The possibility of trading probabilities on real events creates a system in which users’ expectations are continuously updated through the market.
For the cryptocurrency sector, this dynamic is particularly interesting: the probabilities associated with regulatory decisions, the approval of financial products, technological developments and price fluctuations can provide a complementary point of observation compared with traditional sources.
Prediction markets can therefore become a useful source for journalists, researchers, investors and analysts, provided that quotes are interpreted critically and implied probabilities are not confused with statistical certainties.
Polymarket does not eliminate risk and does not guarantee profits, but it introduces an alternative model for observing and trading expectations about the future.
