Poll shows broad opposition
A new Reuters/Ipsos survey found most Americans do not want prediction markets used for betting on US elections and other government actions. The poll covered 4,506 adults nationwide from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5. It found 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposed using prediction markets to bet on election results. That cross-party result is notable because the prediction market debate has mostly focused on legal authority, not public opinion.
Sports betting also faces resistance
The survey did not show strong support for sports betting either. About 43% of respondents opposed betting on professional sports, while 29% supported it. The rest were unsure or did not answer. The numbers suggest the industry still has a public trust problem, even beyond elections. Companies like Polymarket and Kalshi have pushed prediction markets into mainstream attention, but the business model remains contested.
Legal fight heads toward Supreme Court
The prediction market industry lets people bet on elections, government policy moves and sporting events. That has led to lawsuits involving state and federal agencies over who has the authority to regulate these markets. President Donald Trump’s administration is pursuing federal rules through the CFTC, and states are fighting that approach. Many expect the dispute to reach the Supreme Court.
On Oct. 8, Cointelegraph reported that 39 US states and the District of Columbia filed an amicus brief. The brief said the conflict between the CFTC and state authorities over prediction markets had become a national turf war that needed a Supreme Court answer. That language may be strong, but it captures the stakes. The case could decide whether federal regulators or states set the rules for a fast-growing sector.
What comes next
For now, the Reuters/Ipsos poll adds a public opinion layer to a legal fight. It does not settle the regulatory question. But it gives lawmakers and regulators a reason to move carefully. If most voters oppose election betting, any federal rule that appears to allow it could face political backlash. The industry may argue that prediction markets are useful information tools, but the survey shows that argument has not won over most Americans. The Supreme Court may eventually have the final word, but public skepticism is already part of the debate.
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