TLDR:
The S&P 500 rose after all 11 midterm elections from 1982 through 2022, averaging a 13.7% one-year gain.
Divided government produced a 15% average one-year S&P 500 gain, versus 11.5% under single-party control.
Under a Democratic Congress and Republican president, the S&P 500 averaged 10.9% a year after midterms.
The S&P 500 fell 22.1% after the 2000 elections, while the 2020 elections saw a 38.3% one-year gain.
The stock market after midterm elections has historically delivered strong returns, regardless of which party wins control in Washington.
CNBC analyzed S&P 500 data from 1980 through 2024. The index rose after all 11 midterms from 1982 through 2022. Investors remain cautious ahead of the vote.
However, past results show that the market often recovers once the uncertainty clears. The index averaged a 13.7% gain one year after those midterm elections.
Midterm History Shows Consistent Gains
CNBC found that the index rose an average of 0.2% after one day and one week. After one month, the average gain reached 1.1%. These figures cover both presidential and midterm elections.
Over a longer period, the stock market after midterm elections performed better. The index gained an average of 13.7% a year after midterms and 13.8% after presidential elections. Returns were positive in 91% of cases.
Short-term returns were less reliable, particularly after presidential contests. Those races produced slightly negative average returns after one day and one week.
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, said investors feel anxious before these elections. He added that relief tends to follow, and markets usually perform well afterward.
CNBC shared the findings in a post on X ahead of the vote. The network said markets are anxious ahead of the midterms but have historically performed well afterward. It added that this pattern holds for a red wave, blue wave, split result or status quo.
Markets are sweating it out ahead of the midterm elections, but the event historically heralds strong performance for stocks — regardless of whether it’s a red or blue wave, split decision, or status quo in Washington.
The S&P 500 tends to perform well after both midterm and… pic.twitter.com/l2T1W8Kb8F
— CNBC (@CNBC) November 2, 2026
Divided Government Has Favored Stocks
The stock market after midterm elections has usually favored divided government. This means one party holds the White House while the other controls at least one house of Congress. CNBC examined 10 midterm and five presidential elections that left no single party in charge.
In those cases, the S&P 500 averaged a 15% gain after one year. One-year returns were positive in 14 of 15 cases. By comparison, single-party control produced an average gain of 11.5%.
Detrick said a large red or blue wave is less favored by markets. He pointed to heavy spending and concentrated power as the reasons. A Democratic Congress with a Republican president also produced gains.
After the 1986, 1990 and 2006 midterms, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% on average on the reaction day. It was up 3.4% a month later and 10.9% after a year.
The stock market after midterm elections may coincide with other factors that matter more for returns. The S&P 500 fell 22.1% in the year after the 2000 elections because of the dotcom bust.
That marked the worst post-election result since 1980. In contrast, the index gained 38.3% after the 2020 elections as markets recovered from the COVID-induced selloff.
CNBC also listed Fed policy, earnings and the AI trade as factors that may matter more than the election result.
The post S&P 500 Historically Gains After Midterm Elections, CNBC Data Shows appeared first on Blockonomi .
