For oil, the key detail is that Iran has explicitly tied the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to sanctions relief, the end of the US naval blockade and the release of frozen funds. That makes any supply normalisation dependent on a broad political deal rather than a ceasefire alone. The early dip in crude shows traders are leaning toward diplomacy and away from escalation, but the gap between the two sides limits how much risk premium can come out. The next 36 hours of feedback through Qatar is the near-term catalyst: a constructive response could pressure prices further, while a breakdown, or Israeli action without US backing, would likely send them sharply higher. Iran’s threats against US facilities in Europe add a tail risk beyond the Gulf.
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Both sides are still talking, but Iran has made clear that the price of reopening Hormuz is sanctions relief, and Washington has yet to pay it.
Summary:
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran and the US remain far from a deal
Iran says Hormuz will reopen only if oil sanctions are waived, the US naval blockade ends and frozen funds are released
Qatar says both sides are reviewing proposals, with feedback expected within 36 hours
Trump said the US is ready to strike but may not need to , and that indirect talks on Iran’s enriched uranium are continuing
US forces carried out limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island overnight, described as defensive
Oil slipped in early Asian trade despite an unexpected fall in US crude stocks
Iran and the United States remain far from a deal to end their war, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. Tehran insisted the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed until its conditions are met, while President Donald Trump said he was ready for further strikes but in no hurry to launch them.
The official said mediators were working hard to narrow the gaps, but that Iran would not accept what it views as excessive US demands. Tehran’s conditions for reopening Hormuz include the waiving of oil sanctions, an end to the US naval blockade of its ports and the release of frozen Iranian funds. Nuclear talks could begin only once those conditions were met, the official said. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Washington’s response so far had not been convincing, and that the strait would reopen only if the US addressed all seven of Iran’s conditions.
Qatar is leading the mediation. Its foreign ministry said both sides were reviewing proposals, and an official briefed on the talks told Reuters that feedback from Washington and Tehran was expected within 36 hours. A senior Iranian official later said there was no deadline for exchanging messages.
Trump struck a mixed tone in separate interviews. He told the Financial Times that the US appeared to be getting everything it wanted and that, while it was ready to act, there might be no reason to. He said indirect talks on Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium were ongoing. In a Fox News interview, he said he did not want large loss of life but would act if required.
Military activity has not stopped. US forces carried out limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island overnight, targeting surface-to-air missiles used against US assets. A US official described the strikes as defensive and said they did not signal a return to major combat. Iranian officials warned of an immediate response to any further attack, unconstrained by geography.
Trump also announced a deal with Israel under which the US would end $4bn in annual funding after this year, while continuing to sell it weapons.
Oil prices slipped in early Asian trade on Wednesday, Reuters reported, as investors awaited the midterm results and their implications for the talks. The dip came despite industry data showing an unexpected fall in US crude inventories.
Back to business tomorrow.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
