Traders Waver on Fed Hike Bets After Jobs Report

>> DAILY, REPORTING FROM THE MAGAZINE THAT HELPS GLOBAL LEADERS STAY AHEAD, WITH INSIGHT ON THE PEOPLE, COMPANIES, AND TRENDS SHAPING TODAY'S COMPLEX ECONOMY, PLUS GLOBAL BUSINESS, FINANCE, AND TECH NEWS AS IT HAPPENS, WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC, LIVE ON BLOOMBERG RADIO, TELEVISION, AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. CAROL: YES INDEED, IT IS FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2020 SIX. BACK ON THE EAST COAST. FLEW BACK LAST NIGHT. TIM IS NOT HERE. HE HAS SOME TIME OFF. BUT LUCKY FOR US, WE HAVE ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS WITH US, ONE OF THE ANCHORS OF BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE. DELIGHTED TO HAVE YOU ON A DAY WHEN WE HAVE SOME NEWS COMING AT US. ALEXIS: AND OIL ALL OVER THE PLACE. WHAT THE G7 IS DOING TO BRING RELIEF TO BUSINESSES AND CONSUMERS. CAROL: THE JOBS REPORT CAME OUT AT 8:30 A.M. THIS MORNING. WALL STREET LIKES IT. BUT WE ARE SEEING STOCKS OFF THE BEST LEVELS OF THE SESSION. WE HAVE ALSO GOT A VIEW FROM THE C-SUITE. JENNIFER BUCHANAN IS THE CEO OF NETWORK SOLUTIONS GROUP. IT IS ABOUT WEBSITE DOMAINS. IF YOU GO BACK TO THE BEGINNING OF THE INTERNET, WE TALKED SO MUCH ABOUT DOMAINS, BUT THERE WAS VALUE. I'M CURIOUS WHAT THIS MEANS IN A WORLD OF AI. ALEXIS: IT ALSO HARKENS BACK TO THE.COM -- THE DOTCOM ERA, WHEN EVERYBODY WAS TRYING TO GET THE DOMAINS. CAROL: AN ASSET CLASS, TO SOME EXTENT. WE WILL TALK ABOUT ILLINOIS AND THE BEARS. CAN ILLINOIS HOLD ON TO NFL FRANCHISE? GOVERNOR PRITZKER IS TRYING TO DO SO. OUR TEAM ON THE GROUND IS GOING TO DIG IN. ALEXIS: SO MANY TEAMS GETTING NEW STADIUMS OR PROPOSING NEW STADIUMS. CAROL: EVERY TEAM WANTS A HIGH-END MEGA STADIUM. LET'S GET YOU GOING ON THE TRADE TODAY. AMY MORRIS IS IN. AMY: A SHARP SLOWDOWN IN THE JOBS MARKET. BOND YIELDS HIGHER ON SPECULATION THE FED WON'T NEED TO RAISE RATES ANYTIME SOON. WE MARKETS ALL DAY LONG HERE AT BLOOMBERG. THE S&P 500 IS UP THREE QUARTERS OF A PERCENT. THE DOW, UP ABOUT HALF A PERCENT. THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD AT 5.2 7%. THE 30 YEAR YIELD AT 5.63 PERCENT. G7 NATIONS ARE SET TO RELEASE AS MUCH AS 100 MILLION BARRELS OF EMERGENCY OIL AND DIESEL STOCKS TO TRY TO HELP TRIGGER A DROP IN FUEL CRISIS -- FUEL PRICES. OIL IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. WTI IS LOWER. BRENT CRUDE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, TOPPING 102 PER BARREL. BROADCOM STARTING TO GATHER 60 BILLION DOLLARS OF FRESH AI CHIP FINANCING TO BENEFIT ANTHROPIC AND OTHER COMPANIES. WALL STREET AND SILICON VALLEY WATCHING THIS CLOSELY. THEY WANT REASSURANCE THAT INVESTORS ARE STILL WILLING AND ABLE TO BACK AI'S BUILDOUT, EVEN WITH THE PUBLIC BACKLASH AGAINST DATA CENTER CONSTRUCTION. THE FINANCING AS TO HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DEBT ALREADY RAISED TO BUILD THAT INFRASTRUCTURE. BROADCOM SHARES NEARLY 3% HIGHER. NVIDIA SHARES HIT THEIR FIRST RECORD IN MORE THAN FOUR MONTHS, RESULTING IN A MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF 5.7 TRILLION DOLLARS. NVIDIA NOW WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF $6 TRILLION. NOBODY HAS DONE THAT BEFORE. SHARES OF NVIDIA NEARLY 2% HIGHER. FOR ON-DEMAND NEWS, SUBSCRIBE WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS. I AM AMY MORRIS. THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. LET'S GO BACK TO BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY. CAROL: SUCH GOOD STUFF. AMY MORRIS, WE WILL BE BACK TO YOU A LITTLE LATER ON. WE HAVE GOT TO TALK ABOUT ONE OF THE KEY ECONOMIC REPORTS. IT WAS INFLATION BUT ALSO THE MONTHLY JOBS REPORT. WE HAD THE U.S. ADDING FEWER JOBS THAN EXPECTED IN SEPTEMBER. WE SELL WAGE GROWTH SLOWING. CAUTION OF MID RISING COSTS. A GROWING WORKFORCE. ALEXIS: IS THE JOB MARKET AS STRONG AS WE THOUGHT IT WAS? CAROL: IT IS A GOOD CHRISTIAN WE ARE GOING TO DIG INTO. WE WANT TO EXPLAIN A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT THIS MEANS FOR MAYBE THE U.S. TRAJECTORY. WE HEARD FROM KEVIN HASSETT, THE PRESIDENT'S CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISOR. HERE IS WHAT HE HAD TO SAY IT TO MIKE MCKEE AND DANI BURGER EARLIER TODAY. KEVIN: THERE COULD BE UPSIDE BECAUSE OF RETURNS BEING SO HIGH. IN THE END, THAT IS VERY GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE WHOLE THING. THE ONLY REASON THE BOND RATES WOULD GO UP IS THAT -- IS THAT THE ECONOMY IS SO STRONG. CAROL: IT DEPENDS WHAT HE IS TALKING ABOUT IN RELATION TO WHERE RATES GO. KEVIN HASSETT, DIRECTOR OF THE WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC COUNCIL. MIKE MCKEE JOINING US. HE IS OUR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY CORRESPONDENT. YOU HAVE HAD A LONG DAY. MIKE: NOT AS LONG AS YOU. CAROL: I DID GET A FEW HOURS OF SLEEP IN BETWEEN, COMING BACK. TALK TO US ABOUT WHAT KEVIN HASSETT HAD TO SAY. YOU SPOKE TO HIM ABOUT A LOT OF DIFFERENT THINGS. I AM CURIOUS ABOUT WHAT HE HAD TO SAY ABOUT WHAT IT MEANS FOR RATES. I ALWAYS THINK LOWER RATES MEAN WE HAVE TO GIVE THE ECONOMY SOME JUICE A LITTLE BIT. MIKE: HE DID NOT ARGUE FOR LOWER RATES AT THIS POINT. WE DID TALK ABOUT THE JOBS REPORT, OF COURSE. I THINK HE WOULD HAVE AGREED IF YOU WERE NOT WORKING FOR DONALD TRUMP THAT SOMETIMES BAD NEWS, IN THE SENSE THAT THE JOB CREATION WAS NOT AS STRONG AS WE THOUGHT AND THE AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS WERE DOWN YEAR-OVER-YEAR TO 3%, WHICH IS A LITTLE BIT BELOW INFLATION. SO AMERICANS ARE NOT HAPPY ABOUT THAT STUFF, BUT IT MEANS FOR THE PRESIDENT'S AGENDA THAT THE FED DOES NOT HAVE TO RAISE RATES RIGHT AWAY, WHICH IS SOMETHING THEY HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT. IT IS NOT TERRIBLE NEWS FOR THE PRESIDENT AND WAS NOT TERRIBLE NEWS FOR THE ECONOMY. THE LABOR FORCE GROWTH HAS SLOWED, SO WE NEED FEWER JOBS NOW TO KEEP THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STEADY. 29,000 JOBS IS NOT GREAT. BUT IT IS STILL AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE LEVEL YOU NEED FOR THAT. AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WENT UP TO 4.2%. IT REALLY MOVED BY THREE BASIS POINTS. ALEXIS: IS THAT BECAUSE MORE PEOPLE WERE OUT THERE ACTIVELY SEARCHING FOR A JOB SO THEY ARE ADDED AMONGST THE UNEMPLOYED? WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR WHAT THE FED IS GOING TO PRIORITIZE? WE KNOW THEY HAVE THE DUAL MANDATE TO KEEP INFLATION LOW AND KEEP THE ECONOMY AT FULL EMPLOYMENT. IS THIS REPORT ENOUGH TO HAVE THEM THINK, WAIT A MINUTE, WE NEED TO WORRY ABOUT THE JOB MARKET? MIKE: WHAT IT DOES IS TAKE IT OUT OF CONSIDERATION FOR THEM. THEY CAN FOCUS ON THE INFLATION NUMBERS. IF WE HAD GOTTEN A STRONG JOBS REPORT LIKE THE INITIAL REPORT IN AUGUST, IT WOULD HAVE SUGGESTED THE ECONOMY IS STARTING TO HEAT UP AND YOU NEED TO MOVE RATES FASTER. WHILE MOST OF THEM STILL THINK WE ARE GOING TO NEED ANOTHER RATE INCREASE, NOW IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE IN OCTOBER. CAROL: I THINK ABOUT THE PRACTICAL SIDE OF THIS. THIS IS THE LAST MONTHLY JOBS REPORT BEFORE MIDTERMS. BUT WE DO HAVE A FED MEETING BEFORE MIDTERMS. I DON'T KNOW. SHOULD WE NOT GO THERE IN TERMS OF POLITICALLY WHAT WE CAN SEE IN TERMS OF WHAT THE FED WOULD DO, PERHAPS, AHEAD OF MIDTERMS? MIKE: THE FED WOULD LIKE NOT TO HAVE TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE POLITICS. THEY WILL DO WHAT IS NECESSARY, AS THEY ALWAYS SAY. NO MATTER WHO IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE. THEY HAVE A TRACK RECORD OF RAISING RATES BEFORE ELECTIONS WHEN THEY THINK THAT IS NECESSARY. IN THIS CASE, I'M SURE IT IS JUST EASIER NOT TO, BUT THEY ARE NOT GOING TO SAY THAT. BUT THE NUMBERS DON'T COMPEL THEM TO DO IT UNLESS WE GET SOME SORT OF REALLY, REALLY STRONG CPI REPORT. ALEXIS: IS THERE A REASON TO BELIEVE THE JOB MARKET WILL MARKEDLY IMPROVE BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE YEAR? WE SAW THE CHALLENGER SURVEY SAYING INTENTIONS TO HIRE DON'T LOOK GREAT. WE HAVE THE HOLIDAYS COMING UP WHEN RETAILERS BRING ON MORE WORKERS. THEY SEEM HESITANT THIS YEAR TO DO SO. MIKE: THEY DO SEEM HESITANT AND IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE. AMERICANS HAD SLOWED THEIR SPENDING. LAST MONTH WAS BIG. THE SAVINGS RATE IS GOING DOWN. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE AMERICANS ARE GOING WITH THIS IN TERMS OF CONSUMER SPENDING. WE KNOW THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR, WE SHOULD STILL HAVE STRONG BUSINESS SPENDING BECAUSE YOU HAVE ALL OF THE AI SPEND STILL ADDING TO THE OVERALL ECONOMY. BUT THE HOLIDAYS ARE A LITTLE HARD TO PREDICT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER IF THEY ARE STILL WANTING TO SPEND. CAROL: MAYBE IF GAS PRICES GO DOWN, THEY WILL SPEND. I WANT TO GO THERE BECAUSE YOU GUYS WENT THERE WITH KEVIN HASSETT. HE SPOKE ON FOX NEWS ABOUT MORE TO COME NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF PRESIDENTIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS ON ENERGY. HOW DOES THIS FACTOR IN IT? MY VIEW IS ENERGY, LONGER-TERM, THERE ARE GOING TO BE PRESSURES. THERE IS SUCH DEMAND EVERYWHERE YOU LOOK. I DON'T KNOW HOW EASY THIS IS TO FIX. MIKE: THE PRESIDENT MAY HAVE PRESS RELEASES, BUT THERE IS NOT A FIX FOR WHAT IS GOING ON. THEY GOT A BOOST TODAY BECAUSE THE EUROPEAN UNION AGREED TO RELEASE 100 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL AND DIESEL, WHICH WILL BRING DOWN PRICES IN EUROPE. AND BECAUSE IT IS A GLOBALLY TRADED COMMODITY, IT SHOULD BRING DOWN PRICES FOR DIESEL A LITTLE BIT HERE. THE OIL PART IS NOT GOING TO MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE. BRINGING PRICES DOWN IN THE FUTURES MARKET FOR OIL, BUT NOT GASOLINE. OIL HAS TO BE REFINED INTO GASOLINE AND IT HAS TO BE REFINED INTO DIESEL, AND REFINERIES ARE RUNNING FULL OUT. THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL CAPACITY AVAILABLE. SO YOU COULD MAKE MORE UNREFINED OIL AVAILABLE, BUT IT IS NOT GOING TO GET YOU MORE GASOLINE OR DIESEL. IF IT IS ALREADY DIFFERENT -- ALREADY REFINED DIESEL, THAT WILL HELP AT THE MARGIN. CAROL: MARK, YOU WEAR A LOT OF HATS HERE. YOU WORK ON SPORTS AND WALL STREET WEEK. I DON'T WANT TO GIVE AWAY STORIES. BUT YOU LOOK AT SO MANY DIFFERENT METRICS TO KIND OF UNDERSTAND WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE REAL ECONOMY HERE IN THE U.S. IS THE REAL ECONOMY DOING WELL? WE ARE GOING TO GET EARNINGS SOON. DO YOU THINK A LOT OF FOLKS ARE GOING TO SAY EARNINGS ARE DOING OK? MIKE: EARNINGS APPEAR TO BE DOING OK AND THE REAL ECONOMY IS DOING OK. WE'RE SEEING GROWTH. MOST OF IT IS COMING FROM THE AI STUFF, BUT IT IS BOOSTING GROWTH IN THE OVERALL ECONOMY. AND WE ARE NOT SEEN PEOPLE LOSE THEIR JOBS EVEN THOUGH JOB CREATION IS SLOW. THE WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS NUMBERS ARE VERY VERY LOW. SO PEOPLE HAVE JOBS AND THEY CAN SPEND. THEY BASICALLY SPEND OUT OF THEIR PAYCHECKS. SO WE CAN KEEP GOING LIKE THIS UNLESS SOMETHING BAD HAPPENS. THAT IS -- THE ECONOMIC ASPECT IS A DIFFERENT THING THAN THE POLITICAL ASPECT. WE WERE TALKING BEFOREHAND. I WAS OUT IN ILLINOIS THIS WEEK AND PEOPLE THERE ARE NOT HAPPY. THEY KNOW THAT THERE IS A LOT OF HELP WANTED SIGNS, BUT THEY ARE ALSO UPSET ABOUT WHAT THEY SAY IS AFFORDABILITY. THEY SEE THE GAS PRICES. PEOPLE IN BUSINESS AND ON THE FARMS SEE THE DIESEL PRICES. THEY DON'T THINK PROGRESS IS BEING MADE. THEY THINK TIME IS BEING WASTED ON THE IRAN WAR. AND THEY ARE JUST TIRED OF IT ALL AT THIS POINT. ALEXIS: THERE WAS THE POLE THIS WEEK SHOWING THE DISAPPROVAL OVER THE WAY PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS BEEN HANDLING THE COUNTRY AND IT IS SWEEPING THROUGH -- SEEPING THROUGH TO OTHER REPUBLICANS AS WELL. MIKE: IT IS GOING TO GET MORE ACUTE FOR THE PEOPLE CALL WASHINGTON AT LEAST PART-TIME HOME, BECAUSE THEY MAY NOT MUCH LONGER. CAROL: WE WILL TALK LATER ABOUT THE BEARS BECAUSE I KNOW MIKE HAS SOME THOUGHTS. THANKS FOR STICKING AROUND. MICHAEL MCKEE IS BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY CORRESPONDENT. WE ARE GOING TO STAY ON JOBS, THE U.S. ECONOMY. LET'S GET RIGHT TO OUR NEXT GUEST. KATHY IS THE SENIOR VP AND CHIEF ECONOMIST OF NATIONWIDE MUTUAL, THE INSURANCE COMPANY, JOINING US FROM NEW YORK CITY. KATHY, GOOD TO HAVE YOU BACK ON BLOOMBERG. YOUR READ ON THE JOB DATA WHEN IT TELLS US ABOUT THE U.S. ECONOMY? KATHY: HAPPY TO BE WITH BOTH OF YOU. I THINK IT IS A SOLID LABOR MARKET READING. YES, IT WAS COOLER THAN EXPECTED, COOLING FROM AUGUST. BUT AS MIKE POINTED OUT, IT WAS JUST RIGHT BECAUSE IF IT WERE STRONGER AND WE HAD ANOTHER ROBUST GAIN IN JOBS AND MAYBE WAGE GROWTH WAS STRONGER, THAT WOULD ELICIT A STRONGER, FASTER RESPONSE FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE. AND THAT WOULD MEAN THAT POSSIBLY OCTOBER IS REALLY STRONGLY ON THE TABLE IN TERMS OF OUR RATE INCREASE. I WOULD AGREE NOW THAT THERE IS A LITTLE LESS COMPELLING REASON, BUT I DON'T THINK WE CAN RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY BECAUSE WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE INFLATION DATA, THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX DATA, THAT WILL COME OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. I THINK YOU LOOK AT THE THREE MONTH MONTHLY AVERAGE FOR PAYROLLS, OVER 50,000. PRIVATE PAYROLLS, 54,000. AND WE DO NEED LESS JOB GROWTH TO KEEP THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STEADY. WE NEED 20,002 30,000 A MONTH. WE ARE WELL CLEARING THAT IF YOU LOOK AT THE LAST TWO TO THREE MONTHS. ALEXIS: WE KNOW THAT WAGES CAN BE INFLATIONARY. WE SAW THEM PULL BACK IN THE LATEST REPORT. IS THERE CONCERN THAT AT SOME POINT, THE CONSUMER IS GOING TO BE TOO STRAPPED AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE HIGHER PRICES THAT WE SEE? KATHY: YEAH. IT IS A BURDEN FOR THE CONSUMER RIGHT NOW. THEY ARE DEFINITELY BEING PINCHED BY HIGHER ENERGY PRICES, GASOLINE, AND THE FARMERS WITH HIGHER DIESEL PRICES. BUT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IS THE CONSUMER POWERS THROUGH THAT. THEY DID IN THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER. AND, YOU KNOW, I THINK THE SAVINGS CUSHION IS A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN WE THOUGHT. YES, THE SAVINGS RATE HAS BEEN COMING DOWN. BUT WITH REVISED GDP NUMBERS, THE SAVINGS RATE IS ABOUT A PERCENTAGE POINT HIGHER THAN WE THOUGHT. IT IS 4.1%, AND THEY CAN RELY A LITTLE BIT MORE ON CREDIT CARDS. AND HOUSEHOLDS ARE REALLY PINCHED BY THESE HIGHER ENERGY COSTS. WE'RE TALKING MIDDLE INCOME AND LOWER INCOME HOUSEHOLDS. OTHERS ARE DOING OK, RIGHT? THEY HAVE WEALTH EFFECTS FROM HIGHER STOCK PRICES, HOME PRICES. SO THEY ARE NOT REALLY FEELING IT AS BADLY AS OTHER HOUSEHOLDS. ALEXIS: IF WE SEE THE 10 YEAR YIELDS, WE ARE FINDING A NEW FLOOR AT 5%. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE CONSUMER? DOES THAT FINALLY START TO CHALLENGE THE STOCK MARKET RALLY? KATHY: GREAT QUESTION. I WOULD SAY HOW THE 10 YEAR YIELD REALLY AFFECTS THE CONSUMER IS THROUGH MORTGAGE RATES. MORTGAGE RATES ARE NOW ABOVE 7%, SO IT IS REALLY BAD NEWS FOR THE HOUSING MARKET. I'M NOT SURE IT IS MATERIALLY DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING THROUGH IN THE HOUSING MARKET. I THINK PEOPLE STAY PUT, AND A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE MORTGAGE RATES THAT ARE 3% OR LESS. THEY ARE IMMUNE TO THIS. THEY WON'T BE ABLE TO MOVE, BUT THEY ARE IMMUNE. AUTO LOAN RATES PROBABLY GO UP A BIT. WE HAVE SEEN AUTO SALES KIND OF HAVE MOVED SIDEWAYS FOR MANY QUARTERS NOW. SOME OF IT IS A LACK OF NEW 2027 AUTOMOBILES. SO I DON'T THINK THERE IS A MATERIAL CHANGE THERE. IN TERMS OF THE STOCK MARKET, A BIG REASON WHY LONG-TERM YIELDS ARE HIGHER IS BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS STRONGER, AND NOMINAL GROWTH IS HIGHER. THAT IS USUALLY GOOD FOR EARNINGS. CAROL WAS TALKING ABOUT THAT EARLIER. IT IS USUALLY GOOD FOR EARNINGS AND THE EQUITY MARKET. WE PROBABLY HAVE MORE UPWARD MOVEMENT THAT WE COULD WITHSTAND, THE EQUITY MARKET, IN TERMS OF YIELDS. KEEP IN MIND AI SPENDING IS NOT GOING TO BE SENSITIVE WITH RATES, EVEN IF THEY GO UP A BIT MORE. CAROL: THOSE BIG TECH FIRMS CONTINUING TO TAP INTO THE CREDIT MARKETS. IT IS ALWAYS SOMETHING WE WATCH. ONE THING I WANT TO GO BACK TO BEFORE WE LEAVE -- YOU SAY LESS JOB GROWTH, KEEPING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE KIND OF STEADY. BUT I DO WONDER, IS THERE A POINT WHEN THE LABOR POOL IS SHRINKING -- DOES THAT MEAN WE ULTIMATELY ARE GOING TO KEEP GUARD RAILS ABOUT HOW MUCH GROWTH WE CAN GET OUT OF THIS ECONOMY? WE ALWAYS TALK ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF IMMIGRATION AND BEING ABLE TO INCREASE OUR LABOR POOL, SO I DO WONDER ABOUT THAT. KATHY: WE ARE VERY RELIANT ON THAT, AND HAVE BEEN. IT CAN HOLD BACK ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FOR SURE, AND IT PROBABLY HAS ALREADY, FOR THE LAST 18 MONTHS OR SO. BUT WE ALSO HAVE AI. IT IS SO PROMINENT. AI IS GOING TO BOOST PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH. IT PROBABLY HAS ALREADY, TO SOME DEGREE. PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH HAS BEEN STRONG. THAT HELPS OFFSET THE DRAG FROM LESS LABOR SUPPLY. I THINK THE U.S. ECONOMY IS STILL IN PRETTY SOLID SHAPE. IT COULD REALLY BE STRONGER IF WE HAD MORE AVAILABILITY OF WORKERS. NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT. CAROL: THANK YOU SO MUCH. REALLY GLAD WE COULD GET TO YOU ON THIS FRIDAY. SHE IS THE SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF ECONOMIST AETNA NATIONWIDE MUTUAL. WE HAVE HAD HER ON SO MANY TIMES. I SHOULD KNOW HER NAME. I CAME IN LATE. I AM SICK AND DID NOT GET A LOT OF SLEEP. ALEXIS: YOU GET A PASS TODAY. CAROL: STICK AROUND. AMY: IT IS 2:21 ON WALL STREET. STOCKS AND BONDS HIGHER AFTER A WEEK JOBS REPORT CURBED THE FED HYPE BETS. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EDGED HIGHER. THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS SAYS NONFARM PAYROLLS INCREASED TO 29,000 LAST MONTH. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ROSE TO 4.2 PERCENT. INTEREST RATE PROBABILITY -- WIRP GO ON THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL NOW RIGHT AT 4%. THE NASDAQ IS A LITTLE MORE THAN 1% HIGHER. 10 YEAR TREASURY YIELD AT FIVE POINT 27%. THE 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELD AT 5.63%. YOU KNOW WHAT WE HAVE NOT LOOKED AT? BITCOIN. IT IS LITTLE CHANGED ON THE UPSIDE. G-7 NATIONS ARE TO RELEASE AS MUCH AS 100 MILLION BARRELS OF EMERGENCY OIL AND DIESEL STOCKS TO TRY TO TRIGGER A DROP IN FUEL PRICES. WTI NOW AT $92 A BARREL. BRENT CRUDE MOVING HIGHER NOW. IT IS ABOUT A HALF PERCENT HIGHER AT 103 DOLLARS A BARREL. DIESEL AVERAGING 6.37 DOLLARS PER GALLON. AMAZON COMMITTING TO SPEND MORE THAN A BILLION DOLLARS OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS ON INITIATIVES FOR COMMUNITIES NEAR ITS SERVER FARMS. THE AMAZON WEB SERVICES CEO ANNOUNCED A COMMITMENT IN DEFENSE OF DATA CENTER CONSTRUCTION, SAYING IT NEEDS TO HELP THE U.S. KEEP PACE IN A GLOBAL AI RACE. THE COMMITMENT WILL GO TOWARD WORKFORCE TRAINING PROGRAMS, COMMUNITY ENERGY EFFICIENCY UPGRADES, AND NONPROFIT GRANTS. AMAZON SHARES LESS THAN 1% HIGHER. FOR ON-DEMAND NEWS, SUBSCRIBE TO BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCAST. THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. WE GO BACK TO BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY. CAROL: AMY MORRIS IN FOR CHARLIE PELLETT. WE TAKE THEM FOR GRANTED. WE DID A DEEP GUIDE IN PREPPING FOR THIS SEGMENT. I WENT TO AN OLD STORE BACK IN 2009. CHECK THIS OUT. YOU WOULD BE REMINDED -- YOU WOULD BE REMINDED THAT DURING THE EARLY YEARS, THERE WAS FIERCE COMPETITION FOR THOSE WEBSITE DOMAIN NAMES, ACCOMPANIED BY LAWSUITS AND HUGE SUMS FOR WELL-KNOWN NAMES. IT WAS LIKE ALMOST THE HUNGER GAMES. IT IS CONSIDERED MAYBE DOWN ASSET CLASS. IT IS ONE THAT CAN BE VALUABLE WHEN IT COMES TO DOMAIN NAMES. OUR NEXT GUEST PLAYS IN THIS SPACE AND HAS FOR DECADES AS IT ALSO CONTINUES TO EVOLVE IN A WORLD OF AI. WE HAVE JENNIFER BUCHANAN, CEO OF THE PRIVATELY HELD NETWORK SOLUTIONS GROUP. ITS WEBSITE NOTES IT IS ABOUT HELPING PEOPLE AND BUSINESSES ESTABLISH, MANAGE, AND GROW THEIR ONLINE PRESENCE. YOU ARE GOING TO BE FEATURED IN AN UPCOMING EDITION OF THE CFO BRIEFING NEWSLETTER. YOUR JOINING US FROM JACKSONVILLE'S -- JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA. ALSO WITH US IS THE BLOOMBERG NEWS SENIOR EDITOR, THE EDITOR OF THE CFO BRIEFING NEWSLETTER, WHICH YOU CAN SUBSCRIBE TO AT BLOOMBERG.COM. JUST TO GET US STARTED, YOU ARE NOT PUBLIC, NOT A HOUSEHOLD NAME. EVEN SO, THIS SHOW, WE LOVE TALKING ABOUT THE PRIVATE SPACE, MIDSIZE COMPANIES. WE LOVE IT. YOU GIVE US ANOTHER VANTAGE POINT INTO THE ECONOMY. OUR UNDERSTANDING IS THAT YOU GUYS ARE WORKING WITH OVER 20 MILLION DOMAINS UNDER MANAGEMENT IN OVER 200 COUNTRIES. TELL US ABOUT YOUR COMPANY, WHAT YOU ARE DOING FOR CUSTOMERS, AND THE BIG REVENUE DRIVER FOR YOU ALL. AND WELCOME. JENNIFER: THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. SUPER EXCITED TO TALK TODAY. WE HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR FOUR DECADES AND ALMOST TWO DECADES OF THAT HERE. WE USED TO BE A PUBLICLY TRADED ENTITY. WE WERE ACQUIRED IN 2011. WE MERGED WITH THEM IN 2021, WHERE WE ARE TODAY WITH ONE OF OUR BUSINESS UNITS HERE. WE PRETTY MUCH FOCUS ON PROVIDING DOMAINS AND OTHER DOMAIN SERVICES TO CUSTOMERS. THINK ABOUT THEIR WEBSITE, THEIR EMAILS, THEIR LOGOS. PROTECTION OF THOSE ASSETS. AN PRESENCE ON THE WEBSITE. HOW DID THEY GET FOUND? HOW DID THEY MAKE THEIR BUSINESS? WE TRY TO MAKE THINGS EASY FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND HELP THEM DO BUSINESS. >> IT IS GREAT TO TALK TO YOU AGAIN. IF YOU THINK ABOUT YOUR CUSTOMERS, YOU PREVIOUSLY SAID YOU ARE SERVING SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED COMPANIES. A LOT OF THOSE ARE YOUR CUSTOMERS. WHAT ARE THEY CURRENTLY FEELING LIKE? WHAT IS THE ECONOMY FOR THESE TYPE OF BUSINESSES? >> RIGHT NOW, THERE IS AROUND 36 MILLION SMALL BUSINESSES IN THE UNITED STATES ALONE. REALLY, WHAT THEY WANT -- THEY WANT TO BE FOUND ONLINE. THEY WANT TO CREATE A BUSINESS FOR THEMSELVES. THEY WANTED TO BE EASY. THEY WANT TO USE TECHNOLOGY, BUT THEY WANT TO USE TECHNOLOGY THAT WORKS. THEY DON'T WANT TO WORRY ABOUT HOW IT IS CREATED. JUST GIVE ME MY PRODUCTS SO THAT I CAN DO WHAT I AM GOOD AT. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE SEEING IT IS EASIER THAN EVER TO START A BUSINESS, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME OF THESE AI MODELS. SO LOT -- LOTS OF PEOPLE ARE ENTERING SMALL BUSINESS. THEY CAN CREATE THEIR WEBSITE USING VIBE CODING OR THEY CAN COME DIRECTLY TO US. WE ARE HERE TO GET THEM ANYWHERE IN THEIR JOURNEY TO HELP ACHIEVE THEIR OUTCOMES. ALEXIS: WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT SMALL AND MIDSIZE COMPANIES ARE ASKING FOR NOW, COMPARED TO THREE TO FIVE YEARS AGO? IN THAT AMOUNT OF TIME, SO MANY THINGS HAVE CHANGED. WE HAVE THE WHOLE AI SITUATION THEY NEED TO DEAL WITH. >> ONE OF THE THINGS WE ARE HEARING IS THAT PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR TRANSPARENCY. THEY ARE LOOKING FOR PROTECTION. THEY ARE LOOKING TO MAKE SURE THEIR ASSETS ARE SAFE. THERE ARE A LOT OF BAD ACTORS OUT THERE AND THEY WANT TO SAFEGUARD THEIR ASSETS. THESE ARE SOME OF THE THINGS WE ARE WORKING TO MAKE SURE THAT WE SERVE THEM. >> TALK TO US A LITTLE MORE ABOUT AI. I'M WONDERING HOW THAT CHANGES YOUR BUSINESS. WE KNOW AGENTS CAN DO A LOT OF THINGS THAT HUMANS USED TO DO. WHAT HAPPENS TO YOUR BUSINESS WHEN AI AGENTS CREATE WEBSITES? IS IT A PROBLEM OR IS IT THE SAME WITH A DIFFERENT CLIENT? >> I WOULD SAY IT IS THE SAME WITH A DIFFERENT VIEW. CONSUMERS CAN BUILD THEIR WEBSITES ON DIFFERENT PLATFORMS. BUT WE ARE STILL HERE TO HELP THEM HOST, TO CREATE THEIR DOMAIN NAME, TO KEEP THEM SECURE, AND TO ENHANCE THEIR IDENTITY THROUGH EMAILS AND LOGOS AND WHATNOT. I FEEL LIKE WE ARE A PARTNER. THEY CAN COME IN WHEREVER THEY LIKE THROUGH THEIR JOURNEY, BUT WE ARE HERE TO PARTNER WITH THEM AND MAKE IT EASIER FOR THEM TO CREATE THEIR BUSINESS. CLICKS MAY BE JUST A FOLLOW UP, A BIG TOPIC OF CONVERSATION AMONG CFO'S THESE DAYS IS AI COSTS AND HOW YOU KEEP THEM UNDER CONTROL. HOW DO YOU DO THAT AT NETWORK SOLUTIONS? >> WE DO A COUPLE OF THINGS AT NETWORK SOLUTIONS. FIRST, WE HAVE EDUCATED OUR TEAM HOW TO USE THE RIGHT MODELS. AND IT IS NOT NECESSARILY ABOUT HOW MANY TOKENS THEY ARE USING, BUT ARE THEY USING IT FOR THE RIGHT THINGS TO CREATE RETURN ON OUR INVESTMENT? WE DON'T WANT TO STIFLE ANY CREATIVITY. WE JUST WANT TO USE IT IN THE RIGHT WAY, AND THE MOST COST-CONSCIOUS WAY. OUR I.T. TEAM HAS CREATED A MARVELOUS TOOL TO TRACK COST USAGE AS OUR TEAMS ARE USING IT. AND IF WE WERE GOING TO GO OVER BUDGET, WE WOULD KNOW IMMEDIATELY AND NOT HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH. SO THESE ARE SOME OF THE THINGS THAT WE DO. I JUST WANT TO CALL OUT THAT WE ARE ALSO MEASURING RETURN ON INVESTMENT. THE RETURN ON THAT INVESTMENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY HAVE TO BE COST SAVINGS, RIGHT? WE WANT TO SEE NEW PRODUCTIVITY. WE WANT TO SEE CUSTOMER VALUE AND EFFICIENCY USING THE TOOLS. CAROL: JUST LISTENING TO YOU AND THE CONVERSATION AS IT IS EVOLVING AS IT SOUNDS LIKE AI COULD ESSENTIALLY DO SOME OF THE BASICS. AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE CONVERSATIONS HERE AT BLOOMBERG, BASIC TASKS LIKE MAYBE CREATING A DOMAIN NAME. IS THE REAL VALUE OF YOUR COMPANY, WHEN IT COMES TO THE SECURITY AND THE RISKS -- I WANT TO UNDERSTAND THE BUSINESS MODEL. IT DOES FEEL LIKE AI COULD EASILY DO SOME OF THE BASIC TASKS OF WEB CREATION, TO BE HONEST. YES, FOR WEB CREATION, VIBE CODING COULD MAKE YOUR WEBSITE IN MINUTES. WE HAVE AI TOOLS. WHEN YOU COME TO OUR WEBSITE TO REGISTER THE DOMAIN, TALK IN NORMAL LANGUAGE WHAT YOUR BUSINESS IS, WHAT YOU WANT TO ACCOMPLISH, AND IT WILL COME UP WITH SUGGESTIONS OF DOMAIN NAMES. THE DIFFERENCE IS YOU HAVE TO BE A REGISTRAR TO REGISTER THAT DOMAIN NAME. THAT IS WHERE WE COME IN RIGHT NOW. WE CAN REGISTER THE DOMAIN. YOU CAN BRING THE DOMAIN AND, ATTACH IT TO OUR HOSTING, AND WE PROVIDE THE SECURITY SERVICES. CAROL: IT MAKES YOU WONDER IN A CRYPTO AND BLOCKCHAIN WORLD, DO DOMAINS EVENTUALLY GET ON BLOCKCHAIN'S? >> THEY COULDN'T. I DON'T KNOW A LOT ABOUT THAT. CAROL: I JUST THINK ABOUT THE DISRUPTION THAT CONTINUES TO PLAGUE ALL OF US. THIS IS GREAT. >> TO FOLLOW UP ON THE MOVE WE TALKED ABOUT EARLIER, CAROL MENTIONED THE MOVE FROM PUBLIC TO PRIVATE OWNERSHIP. WE HAD A CFO TALK TO US EARLIER SAYING THEY ARE STILL HOLDING EARNINGS CALLS WITH BOND INVESTORS EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE NOW PRIVATELY OWNED. HOW WAS THE TRANSITION FROM THE PUBLIC TO THE PRIVATE MARKETS? >> THERE ARE A LOT OF SIMILARITIES. WE STILL WANT TO HAVE A SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS. WE WANT TO MAINTAIN GOOD GOVERNANCE. WE WANT TO BE STEWARDS OF OUR ASSETS. AND WE STILL DO A LOT OF THE SAME STUFF. WE HOLD QUARTERLY LENDER CALLS SO THAT OUR LENDERS KNOW THAT WE ARE STILL MAINTAINING A GOOD BUSINESS. BUT IN SOME WAYS, IT IS EASIER AND FREEING. I REMEMBER BEING KIND OF STIFLED AS A PUBLIC COMPANY WHERE EVERY DECISION YOU MAKE, YOU HAD TO SAY, HOW IS THAT GOING TO IMPACT THE STOCK PRICE? HOW IS THAT GOING TO IMPACT WITH THE SHAREHOLDERS THINK? DO WE HAVE THE REVENUE THE STREET THINKS WE ARE GOING TO HAVE? NOW, WE CAN FOCUS ON DOING WHAT IS RIGHT FOR OUR CUSTOMERS, WRITE FOR OUR EMPLOYEES. IN DOING WHAT IS RIGHT FOR OUR BUSINESS. ALEXIS: WHAT WOULD YOU IDENTIFY IS THE BIGGEST HURDLE FOR GROWTH WHEN IT COMES TO YOUR COMPANY RIGHT NOW? >> ONE OF THE THINGS WE NEED TO DO IS BRING IN NEW CUSTOMERS. RIGHT NOW, I THINK THERE IS A LITTLE EVOLUTION. WE HAVE HAD NEW CUSTOMERS. TYPICALLY, WE HAVE ACQUIRED THEM THROUGH GOOGLE AND OTHER ONLINE MARKETING CHANNELS. NOW WE NEED TO EVOLVE AND START MARKETING IN DIFFERENT AREAS -- INFLUENCERS AND LLM MODELS AND WHATNOT. WHEREVER PEOPLE ARE TODAY WHEN THEY ARE STARTING THEIR SMALL BUSINESS, THAT IS WHERE WE WANT TO BE TO MAKE SURE WE ARE GETTING MORE CUSTOMERS. CAROL: YOU HAVE BEEN TWO DECADES AT THE COMPANY. IT WAS PUBLIC, THAN PRIVATE. IT HAS GONE BACK AND FORTH. IS THIS A TOUGH ENVIRONMENT RIGHT NOW, JUST IN GENERAL, BASED ON THE OTHER ENVIRONMENTS YOU HAVE BEEN THROUGH AT THE COMPANY? JUST QUICKLY. >> I THINK THERE ARE CHALLENGES EVERY DAY. THAT IS WHAT KEEPS IT FRESH. EVERY DAY IS A NEW CHALLENGE AND THAT JUST MAKES COMING TO WORK FUN OF. CAROL: IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU WORK IN OUR NEWSROOM, BECAUSE WE FEEL THE SAME THING. WE APPRECIATE YOUR TIME ON THIS FRIDAY. JENNIFER BUCHANAN JOINING US FROM FLORIDA. AND WE ARE JOINED BY THE EDITOR OF THE CFO BRIEFING NEWSLETTER, WHICH YOU CAN AND SHOULD SUBSCRIBE TO. JENNIFER WILL BE IN AN UPCOMING ONE. THERE IS A NEW EDITION OUT THIS WEEKEND. AFTER OVER 100 YEARS IN ILLINOIS, THE CHICAGO BEARS ARE PLANNING TO LEAVE. CAN ANYBODY STOP IT? WE ARE COMING BACK. AMY: IT IS 2:40 ON WALL STREET. I AM AMY MORRIS. A SLOWDOWN IN THE U.S. JOBS MARKET DROVE STOCKS HIGHER BECAUSE THE FED MAY NOT HAVE TO LIFT RATES SOON. WE CHECKED MARKETS FOR YOU ALL DAY LONG HERE AT BLOOMBERG. THE S&P 500 IS UP ZERO POINT 6%. THE DOW UP 0.4%. THE RUSSELL 2000 IS UP 0.9%. THE 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELD NOW AT 5.63 PERCENT. THE PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX HIGHER, LED BY BROADCOM. G-7 NATIONS ARE TO RELEASE AS MUCH AS 100 BILLION BARRELS TO TRY TO LOWER FUEL PRICES. OIL IS TRENDING LOWER. DIESEL AVERAGING 6.37 PER GALLON. RIVIAN SHARES MORE THAN 4% LOWER. IT ANNOUNCED SALES NUMBERS AND REAFFIRMED ITS FULL-YEAR DELIVERY OUTLOOK. THE COMPANY ANNOUNCED IT WILL RELEASE ITS THIRD QUARTER FINANCIAL RESULTS OCTOBER 29 AFTER THE MARKETS CLOSE. TESSA REPORTED BETTER THAN EXPECTED SALES FOR THE THIRD QUARTER. THE AUTOMAKER DELIVERING MORE THAN 480 6000 VEHICLES WORLDWIDE. TESLA SHARES NEARLY 5% HIGHER. FORD SALES TUMBLED FOR THE THIRD QUARTER WHILE NARROWLY STAVING OFF A CHALLENGE FROM HYUNDAI. SALES WEIGHED DOWN BY AN 80% DROP IN AV SALES AFTER A CANCELLATION -- TV SALES AFTER THE CANCELLATION OF A U.S. TAX CREDIT. FOR ON-DEMAND NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY, SUBSCRIBE TO BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS. I AM AMY MORRIS. LET'S GET BACK TO BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY WITH CAROL MASSAR. CAROL: AMY MORRIS AND FOR CHARLIE PELLETT. WITH ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS. TIM IS OUT. I LOVE WHEN WE GET TO FRIDAY AT 2:40 P.M. WALL STREET TIME, BECAUSE WE GET TO TALK SPORTS. THIS IS A FRIDAY SHOW. WE ALL NEED A FRIDAY SHOW TO BE SURE. WE TALK ABOUT DISRUPTION IN THE WORLD A LOT. IT IS HAPPENING IN THE NFL. WE HAVE SEEN PRIVATE EQUITY MONEY COMING IN. WE SEE THE PRICE OF TEAMS AND FRANCHISES OFF THE CHARTS, HITTING RECORDS. A LOT OF TIMES IT IS BECAUSE THEY WANT A NICER STADIUM. ALEXIS: AND WHAT MUNICIPALITY IS GOING TO HELP THEM GET THERE? THAT IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING FROM THE CHICAGO BEARS. CAROL: THE ILLINOIS GOVERNOR, PRITZKER, HAS A HOPE THAT HE WILL HEAD OFF THE CHICAGO BEARS PLAN TO MOVE TO THE STATE OF INDIANA. MAYBE A HAIL MARY FROM ILLINOIS. WITH US IS VANESSA PERDOMO MEG LYONS -- MAGLIONE. SHE IS PART OF THE BUSINESS OF SPORTS PODCAST. SHE IS OUT THERE IN OUR PRINCETON BUREAU. STEP BACK. CHICAGO BEARS. AFTER 100 YEARS, THEY ARE SAID TO BE LEAVING THE STATE. YOU GUYS HERE AT BLOOMBERG HAVE BEEN REPORTING ABOUT IT. IS IT ALL ABOUT WANTING A BETTER STADIUM? GIVE US A LITTLE BIT OF THE BACK STORY HERE. >> EVERY NEW STADIUM THAT IS GOING TO BE CONSTRUCTED IN THE NFL, THE IDEA IS THEY WANT TO BE THE BIGGEST AND THE BEST THAT THEY CAN BE. WE SEE THESE NEW STADIUM BUILDS DO MORE FOR THE TEAM THEN JUST GIVE THEM A NEW HOUSE. THEY GIVE THE CITY A REVITALIZATION. THEY GIVE A PLACE TO BE PROUD OF. AND WE SEE IN THE ECONOMIC BOOM COME WITH THESE BIG STADIUMS. BUT WITH THE BEARS, WHAT WE ARE SEEING THERE IS THAT THEY WANT TO FIND A PLACE WHERE THEY CAN BUILD OUT AN ENTIRE ENTERTAINMENT DISTRICT AND REALLY BUILD SOMETHING AROUND THIS ENTIRE STADIUM, BUT HAVE SOMEONE IN THE MUNICIPALITIES HELP THEM PAY FOR IT. ALEXIS: WE ARE SEEING THAT MORE AND MORE. IN NEW YORK, CITY FIELD, YOU HAVE STEVE COHEN WANTING TO BUILD THIS ENTERTAINMENT COMPLEX, A DESTINATION, IF YOU WILL, AROUND THE STADIUM. CHICAGO BEARS ARE NOT ALONE. YOU HAVE THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, THE DENVER BRONCOS PURSUING STADIUMS. I GUESS THE DIFFERENCE IS DENVER IS LOOKING TO DO IT WITH PRIVATE MONEY. IS THAT RIGHT? ASK DENVER WILL PROBABLY TRY TO DO IT WITH PRIVATE MONEY. THE THING WITH SOME OF THESE ORGANIZATIONS -- IT DEPENDS ON WHAT THEIR OWNERS ARE WILLING TO SPEND. SOME OWNERS -- THE BEARS, FOR EXAMPLE, THEY WANT THIS STADIUM BUILT. THEY PROPOSED $5 BILLION. THERE IS ONLY A HANDFUL OF OWNERS IN THE NFL, WHO TYPICALLY HAVE A LOT OF MONEY, WHO ARE WILLING TO SPEND THAT MUCH. CAROL: WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN? WHEN IS A DECISION GOING TO BE MADE? WHAT ARE YOU GUYS HEARING? >> THEY DO HAVE TIME TO MAKE A DECISION. THEY HAVE A LEAST AT SOLDIER FIELD UNTIL 2033. SO THEY HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO DECIDE WHAT TO DO. THE STADIUM BUILDS, IT TAKES TIME. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A DECISION MADE WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR OR SO. THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS. WE WILL PROBABLY START TO SEE SOMEONE BREAK GROUND. THEY CAN TAKE THEIR TIME. THEY WANT TO STAY IN ILLINOIS IS WHAT WE DO KNOW. BUT THEY HAVE NO PROBLEM GOING TO INDIANA, WHICH IS WHAT THEY ANNOUNCED THEY WERE GOING TO DO. FROM WHAT WE ARE HEARING -- I KNOW RANDALL WILLIAMS MY COLLEAGUE IS HEARING A LOT ON THIS TOPIC. THEY REALLY WANT TO STAY IN ILLINOIS IF THEY CAN. ALEXIS: WHAT IS INDIANA DOING TO MOVE THEM THERE? >> INDIANA IS COMING WITH ALL THE STOPS, SAYING LOOK AT ALL OF THIS SPACE WHERE YOU CAN CREATE EXACTLY WHAT YOU WANT TO DO. WE WILL GIVE YOU THE FUNDING THAT YOU WANT. THEY ARE DOING EVERYTHING THAT THEY CAN. CLEARLY, WHAT THEY WERE DOING DID WORK. THE MAYOR OF HAMMOND, INDIANA, WHERE THEY ARE PROPOSING TO BUILD THE STADIUM, DID COME OUT AND SAY HE WAS NOTIFIED BY THE MAYOR'S ABOUT THE MEETING WITH THE ILLINOIS GOVERNOR, AND HE FELT THAT THE BEARS TOLD HIM THAT BECAUSE THEY STILL ARE VERY DEDICATED TO MAYBE BEING IN HAMMOND. SO WE HAVE BOTH SIDES, INDIANA AND ILLINOIS, BOTH SAYING THEY FEEL VERY HOPEFUL. ALEXIS: THE BUFFALO BILLS HAVE A 3-0 RECORD AND A BRAND-NEW STADIUM. MAYBE THEY ARE LIKE, YOU GET A NEW STADIUM, YOU'VE GOT TO HAVE A PERFECT RECORD. I WANT TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT THE CRITICS WHO ARE SAYING THESE NEW STADIUMS ARE REALLY CATERING TO THE HIGHFLYING SEA SWEETS AND NOT TO THE EVERYDAY FANS THAT KEEP THESE FRANCHISES GOING. WHAT ABOUT SOME SEATS THAT ARE ACTUALLY AFFORDABLE FOR A FAMILY OF FOUR OR FIVE? IS THAT PART OF THE TEAM PLANS? WHAT ARE YOU HEARING? >> THAT IS A GREAT POINT AND THE CRITICS ARE -- THEY HAVE A RIGHT TO SAY THAT. ESPECIALLY WITH THESE BIG NEW BUILDINGS, THE WAY YOU PAY FOR A 5 BILLION DOLLAR BUILDING IS YOU MAKE HOSPITALITY A VERY BIG PART OF IT. YOU MAKE THE LUXURY SUITES AS BEST AS YOU CAN. YOU TRY TO WOO ALL THE DIFFERENT COMPANIES TO BUY STADIUMS, TO BUY BOX SEATS. THAT IS HOW YOU PAY FOR IT. UNFORTUNATELY, A FAMILY OF FOUR, A FAMILY OF FIVE, FOR AN NFL GAME, IT DOES NOT MATTER HOW NEW THE STADIUM IS. YOU CAN GO TO METLIFE RIGHT NOW AND IT WILL COST YOU HUNDREDS OF DOLLARS. ALEXIS: AND THAT IS BEFORE YOU BUY LUNCH OR DINNER. CAROL: IT IS NOT JUST FOOTBALL. IT IS BASEBALL. IT WAS AN ISSUE FOR THE WORLD CUP IN TERMS OF MOVING THINGS AROUND. HAVING SAID THAT, THE ECONOMIC IMPACT, WHICH YOU TALKED ABOUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS -- WHY PEOPLE WANT THESE STADIUMS -- IT DOES NOT REALLY PACK A PUNCH CONSIDERING SOME TIMES THE AMOUNT OF MONEY. SOMETIMES, IT IS A MUNICIPAL BOND OFFERING OR SOMETHING. BUT DOES IT REALLY PAY OFF IN THE LONG TERM FOR THE LOCAL ECONOMY OR THE STATE'S ECONOMY? >> A CAN PAY OFF IN THE LONG RUN. THAT IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING WITH LOS ANGELES AND SOFI STADIUM. THE MOST ELABORATE STADIUM EVER. THAT COST $5 BILLION. AND NOW THEY ARE LOOKING TO HOST THEIR SECOND SUPER BOWL WITHIN FIVE YEARS TIME. THIS NEW BEARS STADIUM, IF THEY DO HAVE A DOME, IT WILL ALLOW THEM TO HOST A SUPER BOWL AND OTHER EVENTS LIKE THAT, OR EVEN A WORLD CUP IF THAT DECIDES TO COME BACK ANYTIME SOON. THE 2031 WOMEN'S WORLD CUP COULD BE ON THAT DOCKET. EVERY STADIUM HAS THE ABILITY TO GET BACK THE MONEY AND THE ECONOMIC BOOM, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU ADD THESE MIXED-USE DISTRICTS. CAROL: I WONDER HOW QUICKLY A NEW STADIUM BECOMES OLD, ESPECIALLY WHEN SO MUCH IS TECHNOLOGY. IT IS A FAVORITE SEGMENT. VANESSA, THANK YOU SO MUCH. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND. SHE IS THE BLOOMBERG NEWS SPORTS BUSINESS REPORTER AND ONE OF THE HOSTS OF THE BUSINESS OF SPORTS PODCAST. A NEW ONE COMES OUT EVERY FRIDAY. WE HAVE A MARKET. WE SEE MOST STOCKS IN THE S&P HIGHER, SO WE ARE GOING TO TALK ABOUT SOME STOCKS ON THE MOVE THIS FRIDAY. WE WILL GET INTO THAT IN JUST A MOMENT. >> THIS IS BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY ON BLOOMBERG RADIO AND TELEVISION. CAROL: WE ARE COMING UP ON THE LAST HOUR OF TRADING, AND HE TO WRAP UP THE WEEK. WE ARE NOT QUITE THERE YET, BUT WE ARE LOOKING AT A MARKET -- ALEXIS IS WITH ME. TIM IS OFF TODAY. AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A MARKET WHERE, AS I KEEP MENTIONING -- ALEXIS: THE NASDAQ IS CLOSING IN ON A RECORD CLOSE TODAY. I DON'T THINK WE ARE GOING TO MAKE IT, BUT WE ARE ALMOST THERE. CAROL: WE HAVE BEEN HIGHER ON THE DAY. WITH THE JOBS REPORT, MAYBE THE FED DOES NOT HAVE TO RAISE INTEREST RATES, AS MIKE MENTIONED. AND KATHY MENTIONED EARLIER THAT BAD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS IN TERMS OF DECREASED RATES. KATHY: WE GOT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE OIL PITS AS WELL. CAROL: AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE YIELDS HAVE BEEN HIGHER. I'M LOOKING AT A 10 YEAR AT ABOUT 5.27. BUT WE HAVE BEEN ABOVE THAT. I THINK WE ARE IN A NEW ERA WHEN IT COMES TO RATES. LET'S GET TO SOME STOCKS ON THE MOVE. CAROL MASSAR ALONG WITH ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS. WITH US IS TATIANA, LIVE IN STUDIO. WE HAVE TO TALK NIKE. >> NIKE SHARES TOUCHING THEIR LOWEST SINCE 2014 AFTER AN UGLY EARNINGS REPORT. THE REVENUE GUIDANCE FELL SHORT OF ANALYST ESTIMATES, FORECASTING A DROP FOR THE FISCAL YEAR. THE COMPANY IS CUTTING JOBS AND ANNOUNCED A RESTRUCTURING PLAN AFTER WEAKER THAN EXPECTED SALES YET AGAIN FOR THE QUARTER. SALES ARE DECLINING IN CHINA. SPORTSWEAR AND THE JORDAN BRANDS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES. MANAGEMENT SAYS THE BUSINESSES WILL TAKE ANOTHER YEAR TO IMPROVE. THE ANALYST COMMENTARY IS REALLY SAYING THAT WALL STREET IS STARTING TO LOSE FAITH IN THE CEO, AND WE ARE NOT SEEING SIGNS OF A SUSTAINABLE TURNAROUND. THERE IS A POSSIBLE CHATTER ABOUT REPLACING HIM. ALEXIS: HE STARTED AS AN INTERN WITH NIKE. HE WAS RETIRED AND THEY PULLED HIM OUT OF RETIREMENT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE INVESTOR DAY. THIS IS A REVOLVING DOOR OF CEO'S AT NIKE. CAROL: THAT FIRST SHOE WITH NIKE SELLING OUT QUICKLY, BUT BIGGER PROBLEMS. ALEXIS: THE HARDEST MEMORY AREA IS GETTING HIT. SEAGATE IS ONE OF THE BIG ONES. >> SEAGATE IS THE BIGGEST LOSER IN THE S&P 500 TODAY, ALONGSIDE WESTERN DIGITAL, AFTER THE NIKKEI IN JAPAN REPORTED THAT TOSHIBA WOULD INVEST ABOUT ¥60 BILLION, 300 AND $80 MILLION, TO DOUBLE ITS PRODUCTION FOR HARD DISK DRIVES. THIS IS A TOUGH MARKET, DOMINATED BY THESE THREE COMPANIES. TOSHIBA HAS A SHARE, BUT IT IS A SMALL SHARE. NOW, IT WANTS A BIGGER SLICE OF THE MARKET. THAT THREATENS THE SCARCITY PREMIUM THESE COMPANIES GET FOR STORAGE AND MEMORY CHIPS. THE STOCKS HAVE BEEN ON A TEAR THIS YEAR, SITTING ON GAINS OF OVER 200%, SO ANY SORT OF HINT ABOUT COMPETITION IS HURTING THEM. ON THE OTHERS, THE SILVER LINING IS THAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING THIS IS NOT BAD AND SIGNALS THAT DEMAND IS STRONG, RATHER THAN A POTENTIAL THREAT TO SUPPLY. CAROL: STX IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST PERFORMERS IN THE S&P 500 THIS YEAR. ALEXIS: AND TODAY IT IS ONE OF THE WORST PERFORMERS. CAROL: BUT STILL UP 200%. ALEXIS: PUT IT IN CONTEXT, CAROL. CONTEXT CHANGES EVERYTHING. >> FREEPORT UP ABOUT 4% AFTER PROVIDING AN OPERATIONAL UPDATE. THEY ARE SAYING THAT COPPER PRODUCTION AND SALES ARE EXPECTED TO MEET GUIDANCE, WHICH IS KEY. YOU WOULD NOT EXPECT THAT TO CAUSE A RISE IN THIS MARKET, BUT THE COPPER MARKET IS REALLY SUPPLY CONSTRAINED. WE ARE LOOKING SUPPLY -- AT SUPPLY AT 15 YEAR LOWS, AND HERE IS ONE OF THE MAJOR PRODUCERS SAYING THEY ARE ON TRACK TO RESTART ONE OF THEIR LARGEST COPPER MINES. THE ISSUE THERE -- LAST YEAR, THEY SUFFERED A FATAL MUDSLIDE THAT SUSPENDED ALL OPERATIONS. THAT IS COMING BACK NOW AT 60% OPERATIONAL CAPACITY. THE GOAL IS TO GET IT FULLY RECOVERED BY NEXT YEAR. THAT IS WHY IT IS GREAT NEWS. CAROL: GREAT STUFF. CHECK OUT THE STOCK MOVERS PODCAST. FIVE MINUTE EPISODES OF THE BIG WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE STOCK MARKET, ANYWHERE YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS. BE SURE TO CHECK OUT TATIANA'S MACRO VIEW COLUMN. HIGH RATES DRAINING THE WEAKEST JUNK, AND HOW THAT IS A WARNING SIGN. JUST CROSSING FROM MYLES MILLER AND CHRIS STROHM, U.S. JUSTICE DEPARTMENT IS NOT REOPENING A CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION INTO FORMER FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR JAY POWELL FOR COST OVERRUNS RELATED TO THE CENTRAL BANK'S BUILDING RENOVATION PROJECT. ATTORNEY GENERAL TODD BLANCHE DID NOT RULE OUT CONTINUING TO LOOK INTO THE PROJECT'S OVERSIGHT AND POTENTIALLY TAKE ACTION AS EVIDENCE OF WRONGDOING CAME TO LIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN A BACK-AND-FORTH WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP. I CANNOT FORGET THAT VIDEO OF JAY POWELL AND THE PRESIDENT WALKING THROUGH THE RENOVATIONS AND TALKING ABOUT COSTS. ALEXIS: JUST THIS WEEK, A REPORT CAME OUT SAYING THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME MISTAKES, BUT NOTHING CRIMINAL. PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS PUSHING BACK AND SAYING I WANT A CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION. THE DOJ SAYING THEY WILL NOT REOPEN A CRIMINAL PROBE INTO POWELL. CAROL: